Engineering topics

Waugh, Darryn W.

Publications and source records attributed to Waugh, Darryn W..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2019

Large-Scale Transport into the Arctic: The Roles of the Midlatitude Jet and the Hadley Cell

Transport from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes to the Arctic plays a crucial role in determining the abundance of trace gases and aerosols that are important to Arctic climate via impacts on radiation and chemistry. Here we examine this transport using an idealized tracer with a fixed lifetime and predominantly midlatitude land-based sources in models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We show that there is a 25%-45% difference in the Arctic concentrations of this tracer among the models. This spread is correlated with the spread in the location of the Pacific jet, as well as the spread in the location of the Hadley Cell (HC) edge, which varies consistently with jet latitude. Our results suggest that it is likely that the HC-related zonal-mean meridional transport rather than the jet-related eddy mixing is the major contributor to the inter-model spread in the transport of land-based tracers into the Arctic. Specifically, in models with a more northern jet, the HC generally extends further north and the tracer source region is mostly covered by surface southward flow associated with the lower branch of the HC, resulting in less efficient transport poleward to the Arctic. During boreal summer, there are poleward biases in jet location in free-running models, and these models likely underestimate the rate of transport into the Arctic. Models using specified dynamics do not have biases in the jet location, but do have biases in the surface meridional flow, which may result in differences in transport into the Arctic. In addition to the land-based tracer, the midlatitude-to-Arctic transport is further examined by another idealized tracer with zonally uniform sources. With equal sources from both land and ocean, the inter-model spread of this zonally uniform tracer is more related to variations in parameterized convection over oceans rather than variations in HC extent, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that transport of land-based and oceanic tracers or aerosols towards the Arctic differs in pathways and therefore their corresponding inter-model variabilities result from different physical processes.

chemistry climate models↗

NASA NTRS2018

Overview of Large-scale Tropospheric Transport in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Simulations

The transport of chemicals is a major uncertainty in the modeling of tropospheric composition. Here we compare the large-scale tropospheric transport properties among different models in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) with a focus on transport defined with respect to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface. Among simulations of the recent past (1980-2010) we show that there are substantial differences in their global-scale tropospheric transport properties. For example, the mean transit time since southern hemisphere air last contacted the NH midlatitude surface differs by ~30-40% among simulations. We show that these differences are most likely associated with differences in parameterized convection over the oceans, such that the spread in transport among simulations constrained with analysis fields is as large as the spread among free-running simulations.

large-scale tropospheric transport↗

NASA NTRS2018

Large-Scale Tropospheric Transport in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Simulations

Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40% differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.

Orbe, Clara↗

NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Transport Responses to Tropospheric Circulation Changes Using GEOS-5

The mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Recent comparisons among chemistry climate models, however, reveal that there are large differences in the mean age among models and that these differences are most likely related to differences in tropical (parameterized) convection. Here we use aquaplanet simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) to explore the sensitivity of the mean age to changes in the tropical circulation. Tropical circulation changes are forced by prescribed localized off-equatorial warm sea surface temperature anomalies that (qualitatively) reproduce the convection and circulation differences among the comprehensive models. Idealized chemical species subject to prescribed OH loss are also integrated in parallel in order to illustrate the impact of tropical transport changes on interhemispheric constituent transport.

Orbe, Clara↗

NASA NTRS2017

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

stratospheric ozone↗

NASA NTRS2016

What Causes Mars' Annular Polar Vortices?

A distinctive feature of the Martian atmosphere is that the winter polar vortices exhibit annuli of high potential vorticity (PV) with a local minimum near the pole. These annuli are seen in observations, reanalyses, and free-running general circulation model simulations of Mars, but are not generally a feature of Earth's polar vortices, where there is a monotonic increase in magnitude of PV with latitude. The creation and maintenance of the annular polar vortices on Mars are not well understood. Here we use simulations with a Martian general circulation model to the show that annular vortices are related to another distinctive, and possibly unique in the solar system, feature of the Martian atmosphere: the condensation of the predominant atmospheric gas species (CO2) in polar winter regions. The latent heat associated with CO2 condensation leads to destruction of PV in the polar lower atmosphere, inducing the formation of an annular PV structure.

Toigo, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Transit-Time Distribution from the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Surface

The distribution of transit times from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Here we present an analysis of the transit time distribution (TTD) since air last contacted the northern midlatitude surface layer, as simulated by the NASA Global Modeling Initiative Chemistry Transport Model. We find that throughout the troposphere the TTD is characterized by long flat tails that reflect the recirculation of old air from the Southern Hemisphere and results in mean ages that are significantly larger than the modal age. Key aspects of the TTD -- its mode, mean and spectral width -- are interpreted in terms of tropospheric dynamics, including seasonal shifts in the location and strength of tropical convection and variations in quasi-isentropic transport out of the northern midlatitude surface layer. Our results indicate that current diagnostics of tropospheric transport are insufficient for comparing model transport and that the full distribution of transit times is a more appropriate constraint.

model transport↗

NASA NTRS2015

Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends

Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Tropical Tropopause Layer↗

NASA NTRS2014

Air Mass Origin in the Arctic and its Response to Future Warming

We present the first climatology of air mass origin in the Arctic in terms of rigorously defined air mass fractions that partition air according to where it last contacted the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Results from a present-day climate integration of the GEOSCCM general circulation model reveal that the Arctic lower troposphere below 700 mb is dominated year round by air whose last PBL contact occurred poleward of 60degN, (Arctic air, or air of Arctic origin). By comparison, approx. 63% of the Arctic troposphere above 700 mb originates in the NH midlatitude PBL, (midlatitude air). Although seasonal changes in the total fraction of midlatitude air are small, there are dramatic changes in where that air last contacted the PBL, especially above 700 mb. Specifically, during winter air in the Arctic originates preferentially over the oceans, approx. 26% in the East Pacific, and approx. 20% in the Atlantic PBL. By comparison, during summer air in the Arctic last contacted the midlatitude PBL primarily over land, overwhelmingly so in Asia (approx. 40 %) and, to a lesser extent, in North America (approx. 24%). Seasonal changes in air-mass origin are interpreted in terms of seasonal variations in the large-scale ventilation of the midlatitude boundary layer and lower troposphere, namely changes in the midlatitude tropospheric jet and associated transient eddies during winter and large scale convective motions over midlatitudes during summer.

tropospheric transport↗

NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

model predictions↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Variation of Ozone in the Tropical Lower Stratosphere: Southern Tropics are Different from Northern Tropics

We examine the seasonal behavior of ozone by using measurements from various instruments including ozonesondes, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II. We find that the magnitude of the annual variation in ozone, as a percentage of the mean ozone, exhibits a maximum at or slightly above the tropical tropopause. The maximum is larger in the northern tropics than in the southern tropics, and the annual maximum of ozone in the southern tropics occurs 2 months later than that in the northern tropics, in contrast to usual assumption that the tropics can be treated as a horizontally homogeneous region. The seasonal cycles of ozone and other species in this part of the lower stratosphere result from a combination of the seasonal variation of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the seasonal variation of tropical and midlatitude mixing. In the Northern Hemisphere, the impacts of upwelling and mixing between the tropics and midlatitudes on ozone are in phase and additive. In the Southern Hemisphere, they are not in phase. We apply a tropical leaky pipe model independently to each hemisphere to examine the relative roles of upwelling and mixing in the northern and southern tropical regions. Reasonable assumptions of the seasonal variation of upwelling and mixing yield a good description of the seasonal magnitude and phase in both the southern and northern tropics. The differences in the tracers and transport between the northern and southern tropical stratospheres suggest that the paradigm of well-mixed tropics needs to be revised to consider latitudinal variations within the tropics.

Mixing↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Ventilation of the Stratosphere: Robust Diagnostics from One-Way Flux Distributions

We present an analysis of the seasonally varying ventilation of the stratosphere using one-way flux distributions. Robust transport diagnostics are computed using GEOSCCM subject to fixed present-day climate forcings. From the one-way flux, we determine the mass of the stratosphere that is in transit since entry through the tropical tropopause to its exit back into the troposphere, partitioned according to stratospheric residence time and exit location. The seasonalities of all diagnostics are quantified with respect to the month of year (a) when air enters the stratosphere, (b) when the mass of the stratosphere is partitioned, and (c) when air exits back into the troposphere. We find that the return flux, within 3 months since entry, depends strongly on when entry occurred: (34 +/- 10)% more of the air entering the stratosphere in July leaves poleward of 45 deg N compared to air that enters in January. The month of year when the air mass is partitioned is also found to be important: The stratosphere contains about six times more air of tropical origin during late summer and early fall that will leave poleward of 45 deg within 6 months since entering the stratosphere compared to during late winter to late spring. When the entire mass of the air that entered the stratosphere at the tropics regardless of its residence time is considered, we find that (51 +/- 1)% and (39 +/- 2)% will leave poleward of 10 deg in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), respectively.

Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange↗

NASA NTRS2013

Contrasting Effects of Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Nino on Stratospheric Water Vapor

Targeted experiments with a comprehensive chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

water vapor↗

NASA NTRS2013

Connections Between the Spring Breakup of the Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, Stationary Waves, and Air-sea Roughness

A robust connection between the drag on surface-layer winds and the stratospheric circulation is demonstrated in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Specifically, an updated parameterization of roughness at the air-sea interface, in which surface roughness is increased for moderate wind speeds (4ms to 20ms), leads to a decrease in model biases in Southern Hemispheric ozone, polar cap temperature, stationary wave heat flux, and springtime vortex breakup. A dynamical mechanism is proposed whereby increased surface roughness leads to improved stationary waves. Increased surface roughness leads to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence primarily in the Indian Ocean sector (where eddies are strongest climatologically) in September and October. The localization of the eddy momentum flux convergence anomaly in the Indian Ocean sector leads to a zonally asymmetric reduction in zonal wind and, by geostrophy, to a wavenumber-1 stationary wave pattern. This tropospheric stationary wave pattern leads to enhanced upwards wave activity entering the stratosphere. The net effect is an improved Southern Hemisphere vortex: the vortex breaks up earlier in spring (i.e., the spring late-breakup bias is partially ameliorated) yet is no weaker in mid-winter. More than half of the stratospheric biases appear to be related to the surface wind speed biases. As many other chemistry climate models use a similar scheme for their surface layer momentum exchange and have similar biases in the stratosphere, we expect that results from GEOSCCM may be relevant for other climate models.

air-sea interaction↗

NASA NTRS2012

Long-Term Changes in Stratospheric Age Spectra in the 21st Century in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM)

In this study we investigate the long-term variations in the stratospheric age spectra using simulations of the 21st century with the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Our purposes are to characterize the long-term changes in the age spectra and identify processes that cause the decrease of the mean age in a warming climate. Changes in the age spectra in the 21st century simulations are characterized by decreases in the modal age, the mean age, the spectral width, and the tail decay timescale. Our analyses show that the decrease in the mean age is caused by two processes: the acceleration of the residual circulation that increases the young air masses in the stratosphere, and the weakening of the recirculation that leads to the decrease of tail of the age spectra and the decrease of the old air masses. The weakening of the stratospheric recirculation is also strongly correlated with the increase of the residual circulation. One important result of this study is that the decrease of the tail of the age spectra makes an important contribution to the decrease of the main age. Long-term changes in the stratospheric isentropic mixing are investigated. Mixing increases in the subtropical lower stratosphere, but its impact on the age spectra is outweighed by the increase of the residual circulation. The impacts of the long-term changes in the age spectra on long-lived chemical traces are also investigated. 37 2

Li, Feng↗

NASA NTRS2009

On the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on Changes in the Stratospheric Mean Age

A common feature of stratospheric simulations of the past or future is an increase in tropical upwelling and a decrease in mean age. Possible causes or these changes include (1) increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) driven by increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), (2) the direct radiative effect of increases in WMGHGs, and (3) changes in ozone. Here we examine a suite of simulations from the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM) to isolate the relative role of these three factors. Our analysis indicates that all three factors cause changes in the mean age, but the relative impact of each factor depends on the time period analyzed. Over the past 30-40 years ozone depletion is the major factor causing the decrease in mean age, with negligible changes due to direct radiative impact of WMGHG's. However, ozone is predicted to recover back to 1970 levels during the next 50-60 years, and this causes an increase in the mean age, whereas the continued increase in SSTs from increased levels of WMGHGs and the direct radiative impact of WMGHGs will still cause a decrease in the mean age. The net impact of these factors will still result in a decreasing mean age although the rate will be smaller than that of the past. The decreases in mean age are primarily caused by increases in upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere. The increased upwelling from both increased tropical SSTs and polar ozone loss appears to be related to changes in zonal winds and increases in wave activity propagating into the stratosphere. The different contributions of changes in SSTs, WMGHGs, and ozone to the circulation of the stratosphere may help explain the large spread in the rate of change of tropical upwelling seen in previous studies.

Oman, Luke↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mixing in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Model-measurements Comparisons using MLM Diagnostics

We evaluate transport processes in the extratropical lower stratosphere for both models and measurements with the help of equivalent length diagnostic from the modified Lagrangian-mean (MLM) analysis. This diagnostic is used to compare measurements of long-lived tracers made by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) with simulated tracers. Simulations are produced in Chemical and Transport Models (CTMs), in which meteorological fields are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model (MACCM2), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) "SKYHI" model, respectively. Time series of isentropic equivalent length show that these models are able to capture major mixing and transport properties observed by CLAES, such as the formation and destruction of polar barriers, the presence of surf zones in both hemispheres. Differences between each model simulation and the observation are examined in light of model performance. Among these differences, only the simulation driven by GEOS DAS shows one case of the "top-down" destruction of the Antarctic polar vortex, as observed in the CLAES data. Additional experiments of isentropic advection of artificial tracer by GEOS DAS winds suggest that diabatic movement might have considerable contribution to the equivalent length field in the 3D CTM diagnostics.

Ma, Jun↗

NASA NTRS1999

Transport Experiments

MM II defined a series of experiments to better understand and characterize model transport and to assess the realism of this transport by comparison to observations. Measurements from aircraft, balloon, and satellite, not yet available at the time of MM I [Prather and Remsberg, 1993], provide new and stringent constraints on model transport, and address the limits of our transport modeling abilities. Simulations of the idealized tracers the age spectrum, and propagating boundary conditions, and conserved HSCT-like emissions probe the relative roles of different model transport mechanisms, while simulations of SF6 and C02 make the connection to observations. Some of the tracers are related, and transport diagnostics such as the mean age can be derived from more than one of the experiments for comparison to observations. The goals of the transport experiments are: (1) To isolate the effects of transport in models from other processes; (2) To assess model transport for realistic tracers (such as SF6 and C02) for comparison to observations; (3) To use certain idealized tracers to isolate model mechanisms and relationships to atmospheric chemical perturbations; (4) To identify strengths and weaknesses of the treatment of transport processes in the models; (5) To relate evaluated shortcomings to aspects of model formulation. The following section are included:Executive Summary, Introduction, Age Spectrum, Observation, Tropical Transport in Models, Global Mean Age in Models, Source-Transport Covariance, HSCT "ANOY" Tracer Distributions, and Summary and Conclusions.

Hall, Timothy M.↗