Webb, Mark J. | Search NASA

NASA NTRS2017

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming? CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. 1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations? 2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models? 3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds? 4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observations of the Earth's Radiation Budget in relation to atmospheric hydrology. 4: Atmospheric column radiative cooling over the world's oceans

This paper introduces a simple method for deriving climatological values of the longwave flux emitted from the clear sky atmosphere to the ice-free ocean surface. It is shown using both theory and data from simulations how the ratio of the surface to top-of-atmosphere (TOA) flux is a simple function of water vapor (W) and a validation of the simple relationship is presented based on a limited set of surface flux measurements. The rms difference between the retrieved surface fluxes and the simulated surface fluxes is approximately 6 W/sq m. The clear sky column cooling rate of the atmosphere is derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) values of the clear sky TOA flux and the surface flux retrieved using Special Scanning Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements of w together with ERBE clear sky fluxes. The relationship between this column cooling rate, w, and the sea surface temperature (SST) is explored and it is shown how the cooling rate systematically increases as both w and SST increase. The uncertainty implied in these estmates of cooling are approximately +/- 0.2 K/d. The effects of clouds on this longwave cooling are also explored by placing bounds on the possible impact of clouds on the column cooling rate based on certain assumptions about the effect of clouds on the longwave flux to the surface. It is shown how the longwave effects of clouds in a moist atmosphere where the column water vapor exceeds approximately 30 kg/sq m may be estimated from presently available satellite data with an uncertainty estimated to be approximately 0.2 K/d. Based on an approach described in this paper, we show how clouds in these relatively moist regions decrease the column cooling by almost 50% of the clear sky values and the existence of significant longitudinal gradients in column radiative heating across the equatorial and subtropical Pacific Ocean.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗