Weber, Eric M. | Search NASA

DOE OSTI2022

Shifting temporal dynamics of human mobility in the United States

In this paper we analyze the average hourly temporal dynamics of human mobility in the United States from 2019 to 2020. We discuss how large decreases in human mobility nonuniformly effect the daily temporal dynamics of aggregate human behavior. The data used are weekly activity patterns for POIs from 2019 to 2020 in the United States, provided by SafeGraph and made openly available to academic and research institutions. We use clustering methods to create metrics describing how human activity changes throughout the day/week at the county and national levels. In response to significant mobility reductions starting March 2020, daily temporal patterns of human activity changed nonuniformly. Morning activity started later, and evening activity started earlier in 2020 compared to 2019, and temporal behavioral patterns on weekdays began to look more similar to weekends. The changes in daily temporal behavior persisted throughout the year even as total mobility levels recovered. The results provide insights on the changes in human behavior in response covid-19 policies and illustrate influences on social systems, health, and transportation networks.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗