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Wendy A Okolo

Publications and source records attributed to Wendy A Okolo.

12 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
NASA NTRS2022

Artificial Neural Network Modeling for Airline Disruption Management

Since the 1970s, most airlines have incorporated computerized support for managing disruptions during flight schedule execution. However, existing platforms for airline disruption management (ADM) employ monolithic system design methods that rely on the creation of specific rules and requirements through explicit optimization routines, before a system that meets the specifications is designed. Thus, current platforms for ADM are unable to readily accommodate additional system complexities resulting from the introduction of new capabilities, such as the introduction of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), operations and infrastructure, to the system. To this end, we use historical data on airline scheduling and operations recovery to develop a system of artificial neural networks (ANNs), which describe a predictive transfer function model (PTFM) for promptly estimating the recovery impact of disruption resolutions at separate phases of flight schedule execution during ADM. Furthermore, we provide a modular approach for assessing and executing the PTFM by employing a parallel ensemble method to develop generative routines that amalgamate the system of ANNs. Our modular approach ensures that current industry standards for tardiness in flight schedule execution during ADM are satisfied, while accurately estimating appropriate time-based performance metrics for the separate phases of flight schedule execution.

Kolawole Ogunsina↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pterodactyl: Guidance and Control of a Symmetric Deployable Entry Vehicle using an Aerodynamic Control System

The NASA-funded Pterodactyl project seeks to advance the state-of-the-art for varying entry vehicle types by developing unconventional guidance and control technologies for Deployable Entry Vehicles (DEVs) that can be applied to different entry vehicle configurations. Prior work by the authors [1–5] involved developing both traditional and novel integrated guidance and control solutions for a Pterodactyl Baseline Vehicle (PBV), a variant of an asymmetric DEV called the Lifting Nano ADEPT (LNA) [6]. In the prior studies, two different guidance schemes were designed and implemented for the PBV: (i) traditional bank angle guidance developed using the Fully Numerical Predictor-Corrector Entry Guidance (FNPEG) and (ii) novel angle of attack and sideslip (α - β) guidance developed using FNPEG with Uncoupled Range Control [4]. Using Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) optimal control methods with state-feedback integral control designs, these guidance trajectories were designed to be tracked using (i) a conventional propulsive entry vehicle control hardware architecture - reaction control systems (RCS) and (ii) novel non-propulsive entry vehicle control systems - aerodynamic flap control system (FCS) and moving mass control system (MMCS) [1]. The novel FCS and MMCS architectures were designed to track α - β guidance commands while the RCS was designed to track bank angle commands. It was discovered that the asymmetric DEV, the PBV, experienced a non-zero induced roll moment due to sideslip that the FCS and MMCS architectures had limited capability to trim out. These two architectures were designed to provide independent angle of attack and sideslip commands with limited consideration for roll moment generation to trim. As a result, for the PBV, the FCS and MMCS configurations as designed, were limited in providing the control authority needed to track an α - β guidance trajectory [1]. These results form the motivation for the work presented in this paper - utilizing an aerodynamic control system to track α - β guidance commands for a symmetric DEV with the expectation that a symmetric entry vehicle will have zero or significantly reduced roll moment due to sideslip that the FCS can handle when tracking an α - β guidance trajectory. To demonstrate the feasibility of a novel guidance and control architecture on a DEV, we utilize a symmetric DEV, the PBV-II, for (i) the novel α - β guidance development using FNPEG with Uncoupled Range Control and (ii) LQR control design using eight aerodynamic control surfaces. This paper demonstrates that the novel uncoupled α - β guidance tracking can be achieved using aerodynamic control surfaces on a symmetric deployable entry vehicle configuration.

Wendy A Okolo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pterodactyl: Guidance and Control of a Symmetric Deployable Entry Vehicle using an Aerodynamic Control System

The NASA-funded Pterodactyl project seeks to advance the current state-of-the-art for entry vehicles by developing novel guidance and control technologies for Deployable Entry Vehicles (DEVs). This paper presents the guidance and control design and analysis for a mechanically-deployed DEV with a symmetric aeroshell and aerodynamic control surfaces. We present guidance tuning using both bank angle modulation with the Fully-Numerical Predictor Corrector Entry Guidance technique (FNPEG) and angle of attack and sideslip modulation with FNPEG with uncoupled range control (FNPEG URC). We show the control system design and simulation results for tracking both types of guidance commands.

Benjamin W L Margolis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PMSM Parameter Estimation using a Linear Unknown Input Interval Observer

In this paper, the problem of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) speed and unknown load torque estimation is addressed. For this purpose, a interval unknown input observer (UIO) for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is used. First, the PMSM model is linearized in order to make it in a suitable form for the linear interval UIO. Then, the interval UIO is applied to allow the joint estimation of the motor speed and the unknown load torque disturbance. The main advantages of this approach is that it not only allows the joint state and unknown input estimation, but also to take the different uncertainty sources into account. Indeed, taking model and measurement uncertainty into account is crucial. Assuming that the measurement noise and disturbances are bounded, lower and upper bounds are first computed for the unmeasured state (motor speed) and then for the unknown input (load torque). The proposed approach and its limitations are demonstrated with the nonlinear PMSM model derived from its equivalent electrical circuit.

Elinirina I Robinson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring and predicting the health of physical systems. Prognostics algorithms are useful in that they can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system state throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. However, effective prognosis can be challenging to achieve in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for some prognostics applications. In this work, we implement three new algorithmic approaches to prediction (sampling methods, variable prediction time step, variable prediction sample size) with the goal of improving computational efficiency while minimizing decrease in model accuracy. To quantitatively analyze our results, we examine a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. Notably, through this work it was found that none of the sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. However, our results show that prediction accuracy is highly dependent on the time step used, and that an appropriate time step can optimize both model accuracy and simulation efficiency. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment in an application-specific manner may prove useful in some applications. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency of prognosis.

Prognostics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimation of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor Parameters using a Linear Unknown Input Interval Observer

This paper develops and evaluate a technique to estimate the speed and unknown load torque of a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). An interval unknown input observer (UIO) for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is designed and utilized to estimate the PMSM parameters. Interval UIOs are advantageous as they allow for the estimation of both states and unknown inputs, while accounting for varying uncertainty sources, such as model and measurement uncertainties inherent in dynamic systems and processes. First, the nonlinear PMSM model is linearized to transform it to a suitable form for application of the linear interval UIO. Then, the interval UIO is applied to jointly estimate the motor speed and the unknown load torque disturbance. Assuming that the measurement noise and disturbances are bounded, lower and upper bounds are first computed for the unmeasured state (motor speed) and then for the unknown input (load torque). The proposed approach and its limitations are demonstrated for the nonlinear PMSM model derived from its equivalent electrical circuit.

Elinirina I Robinson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wake Vortex Interaction of Urban Air Mobility Aircraft

This paper presents a study of wake vortex interaction modeling for urban air mobility. Wake vortex modeling approaches for fixed-wing aircraft and rotorcraft are investigated. A wake age model is developed that accounts for the temporal and spatial dissipation of the wake-induced downwash. A wake vortex model is developed for rotorcraft that accounts for blade flapping motion and cyclic pitch control to reduce the lift asymmetry. This in turn results in an equal lift circulation strength on the advancing side and retreating side of the rotor. Two wake vortex interaction simulations are performed to illustrate the modeling approaches.

Wake Vortex↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pterodactyl: 6-DOF Integration of Guidance and Control Algorithms in Genesis

The NASA-funded Pterodactyl project seeks to advance the current state-of-the-art for entry vehicles by developing novel guidance and control technologies for Deployable Entry Vehicles. This paper builds upon the Pterodactyl architecture that employed eight individually articulating flaps with two options for guidance, bank angle modulation with the Fully Numerical Predictor Corrector Entry Guidance (FNPEG) technique and angle of attack and sideslip modulation with FNPEG uncoupled range control. These, with a linear quadratic regulator controller, have previously been presented in separate 3-DOF trajectory simulations, one for translational motion and another for rotational dynamics. This work will show results for integrated 6-DOF simulations, leveraging recent advancements in trajectory simulation tools, namely the Julia-based Genesis package. Results show similar performance for both schemes when compared to the previously presented 3-DOF results once the controllers were adequately tuned. Angle of attack and sideslip modulation necessitated a controller designed at high dynamic pressure conditions, and bank angle modulation necessitated a controller designed at lower dynamic pressure conditions. Notably, angle of attack and sideslip modulation could not achieve the parachute deploy point target Mach number of 2, when only tuning the controller gains, thus future work will be needed to tune guidance specific parameters to achieve acceptable range targeting and guidance command tracking.

DEV↗