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Willems, Nicholas

Publications and source records attributed to Willems, Nicholas.

4 records
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DOE OSTI2024

2020 natural gas LCA data appendices

This collection is the data-centric appendices for the report Life Cycle Analysis of Natural Gas Extraction and Power Generation: U.S. 2020 Emissions Profile. It consists of Appendix A: Additional Modeling Parameters [spreadsheet]; Appendix B: Water Burdens [spreadsheet]; Appendix D: Simulation of Liquids Unloading [python script and spreadsheet]; Appendix E: Detailed GHG Results for All Scenarios [spreadsheet]; Appendix F: Full Inventory Results [spreadsheet]; and Appendix I: Stage-Level Natural Gas Loss and Consumption Rates [spreadsheet].

Appendices↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗