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Willett, J. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Willett, J. C..

Analysis of Proposed 2007-2008 Revisions to the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria for United States Space Launches

Ascending space vehicles are vulnerable to both natural and triggered lightning. Launches under the jurisdiction of the United States are generally subject to a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). The LLCC protect both the vehicle and the public by assuring that the launch does not take place in conditions posing a significant risk of a lightning strike to the ascending vehicle. Such a strike could destroy the vehicle and its payload, thus causing failure of the mission while releasing both toxic materials and debris. To assure safety, the LLCC are conservative and sometimes they may seriously limit the ability of the launch operator to fly as scheduled even when conditions are benign. In order to safely reduce the number of launch scrubs and delays attributable to the LLCC, the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) program was undertaken in 2000 - 2001. The effort was directed to collecting detailed high-quality data on the electrical, microphysical, radar and meteorological properties of thunderstorm-associated clouds. The expectation was that this additional knowledge would provide a better physical basis for the LLCC and allow them to be revised to be both safer and less restrictive. That expectation was fulfilled, leading to significant revisions to the LLCC in 2003 and 2005. The 2005 revisions included the application of a new radar-derived quantity called the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) in the rules governing flight through anvil clouds. Analysis of the ABFM data has continued, and two additional revisions to the LLCC were proposed in late 2006 for adoption in 2007 or 2008. One proposal was to apply the VAHIRR concept to debris clouds, and the other was to reduce the "stand-off distances" in the rules for anvil and/or debris clouds. The stand-off distance is the clearance (out side of the cloud) required between the flight path of the vehicle and the edge of a cloud that it is not permissible to fly through. This paper will discuss these proposed changes in the LLCC and the scientific rationale for adopting or rejecting them based on ABFM data.

Dye, J. E.↗

Electric Fields, Cloud Microphysics, and Reflectivity in Anvils of Florida Thunderstorms

A coordinated aircraft - radar project that investigated the electric fields, cloud microphysics and radar reflectivity of thunderstorm anvils near Kennedy Space Center is described. Measurements from two cases illustrate the extensive nature of the microphysics and electric field observations. As the aircraft flew from the edges of anvils into the interior, electric fields very frequently increased abruptly from approximately 1 to more than 10 kV m(exp -1) even though the particle concentration and radar reflectivity increased smoothly. The abrupt increase in field usually occurred when the aircraft entered regions with a reflectivity of 10 to 15 dBZ. It is suggested that the abrupt increase in electric field may be because the charge advection from the storm core did not occur across the entire breadth of the anvil and was not constant in time. Screening layers were not detected near the edges of the anvils. Some long-lived anvils showed subsequent enhancement of electric field and reflectivity and growth of particles, which if localized, might be a factor in explaining the abrupt change of field in some cases. Comparisons of electric field magnitude with particle concentration or reflectivity for a combined data set that included all anvil measurements showed a threshold behavior. When the average reflectivity, such as in a 3-km cube, was less than approximately 5 dBZ, the electric field magnitude was les than kV m(exp -1). Based on these findings, the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) is now being used by NASA, the Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration in new Lightning Launch Commit Criteria as a diagnostic for high electric fields in anvils.

Dye, J. E.↗

Lightning Return-Stroke Current Waveforms Aloft, from Measured Field Change, Current, and Channel Geometry

Three-dimensional reconstructions of six rocket-triggered lightning channels are derived from stereo photographs. These reconstructed channels are used to infer the behavior of the current in return strokes above the ground from current waveforms measured at the channel base and electric-field-change waveforms measured at a range of 5.2 kilometers for 24 return strokes in these channels. Streak photographs of 14 of the same strokes are analyzed to determine the rise times, propagation speeds, and amplitudes of relative light intensity for comparison with the electrical inferences. Results include the following: 1) The fine structure of the field-change waveforms that were radiated by these subsequent return strokes can be explained, in large part, by channel geometry. 2) The average 10 - 90% rise time of the stroke current increased by about a factor of seven in our sample, from an observed 0.31 plus or minus 0.17 microseconds at the surface to an inferred 2.2 plus or minus 0.5 microcseconds at 1 kilometer path length above the surface. 3) The three-dimensional propagation speed of the current front averaged 1.80 plus or minus 0.24 X 10(exp 8) meters per second over channel lengths typically greater than 1 kilometer. 4) Assuming that the measured current was entirely due to the return stroke forced an unreasonably large and abrupt reduction in inferred current amplitude over the first few tens of meters above the surface, especially in cases when the leader was bright relative to its stroke. Therefore, a significant fraction of the current at the surface was probably due to the leader, at least in such cases. 5) Peak return-stroke currents decreased by approximately 37 plus or minus 12% from 100 meters to 1 kilometer of path length above the surface. Because of uncertainty about how to partition the measured current between leader and return stroke, we are unable to infer the variation of current amplitude near the ground.

Willett, J. C.↗

Electric Fields, Cloud Microphysics, and Reflectivity in Anvils of Florida Thunderstorms

A coordinated aircraft - radar project that investigated the electric fields, cloud microphysics and radar reflectivity of thunderstorm anvils near Kennedy Space Center is described. Measurements from two cases illustrate the extensive nature of the microphysics and electric field observations. As the aircraft flew from the edges of anvils into the interior, electric fields very frequently increased abruptly from approx.1 to >10 kV/m even though the particle concentrations and radar reflectivity increased smoothly. The abrupt increase in field usually occurred when the aircraft entered regions with a reflectivity of 10 to 15 dBZ. It is suggested that the abrupt increase in electric field may be because the charge advection from the storm core did not occur across the entire breadth of the anvil and was not constant in time. Screening layers were not detected near the edges of the anvils. Some long-lived anvils showed subsequent enhancement of electric field and reflectivity and growth of particles, which if localized, might be a factor in explaining the abrupt change of field in some cases. Comparisons of electric field magnitude with particle concentration or reflectivity for a combined data set that included all anvil measurements showed a threshold behavior. When the average reflectivity, such as in a 3-km cube, was less than approximately 5 dBZ, the electric field magnitude was <3 kV/m. Based on these findings, the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) is now being used by NASA, the Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration in new Lightning Launch Commit Criteria as a diagnostic for high electric fields in anvils.

Dye, J. E.↗

Lightning Return-Stroke Current Waveforms Aloft, From Measured Field Change, Current, and Channel Geometry

Direct current measurements are available near the attachment point from both natural cloud-to-ground lightning and rocket-triggered lightning, but little is known about the rise time and peak amplitude of return-stroke currents aloft. We present, as functions of height, current amplitudes, rise times, and effective propagation velocities that have been estimated with a novel remote-sensing technique from data on 24 subsequent return strokes in six different lightning flashes that were triggering at the NASA Kennedy Space Center, FL, during 1987. The unique feature of this data set is the stereo pairs of still photographs, from which three-dimensional channel geometries were determined previously. This has permitted us to calculate the fine structure of the electric-field-change (E) waveforms produced by these strokes, using the current waveforms measured at the channel base together with physically reasonable assumptions about the current distributions aloft. The computed waveforms have been compared with observed E waveforms from the same strokes, and our assumptions have been adjusted to maximize agreement. In spite of the non-uniqueness of solutions derived by this technique, several conclusions seem inescapable: 1) The effective propagation speed of the current up the channel is usually significantly (but not unreasonably) faster than the two-dimensional velocity measured by a streak camera for 14 of these strokes. 2) Given the deduced propagation speed, the peak amplitude of the current waveform often must decrease dramatically with height to prevent the electric field from being over-predicted. 3) The rise time of the current wave front must always increase rapidly with height in order to keep the fine structure of the calculated field consistent with the observations.

Willett, J. C.↗

Geometrical Effects on the Electromagnetic Radiation from Lightning Return Strokes

The morphological difference between the electromagnetic radiation-field waveforms of "first" and "subsequent" return strokes in cloud-to-ground lightning flashes is well known and can be used to identify the formation of new channels to ground. This difference is generally believed due to the existence of branches on first-stroke channels, whereas subsequent strokes re-illuminate only the main channel of a previous stroke; but experimental evidence for this hypothesis is relatively weak. It has been argued for the influence of channel geometry on the fine structure of radiation from subsequent return strokes by comparing the field-change waveforms recorded at the same station from strokes within the same flash and between different flashes of both natural and triggered lightning. The present paper introduces new evidence for both of these hypotheses from a comparison of waveforms between sensors in different directions from the same stroke.

Willett, J. C.↗

Lightning-channel morphology by return-stroke radiation field waveforms

Simultaneous video and wideband electric field recordings of 32 cloud-to-ground lightning flashes in Florida were analyzed to show the formation of new channels to ground can be detected by examination of the return-stroke radiation fields alone. The return-stroke E and dE/dt waveforms were subjectively classified according to their fine structure. Then the video images were examined field by field to identify each waveform with a visible channel to ground. Fifty-five correlated waveforms and channel images were obtained. Of these, all 34 first-stroke waveforms (multiple jagged E peaks, noisy dE/dt), 8 of which were not radiated by the chronologically first stroke in the flash, came from new channels to ground (not previously seen on video). All 18 subsequent-stroke waveforms (smoothly rounded E and quiet dE/dt after initial peak) were radiated by old channels (illuminated by a previous stroke). Two double-ground waveforms (two distinct first-return-stroke pulses separated by tens of microseconds or less) coincided with video fields showing two new channels. One `anomalous-stroke' waveform (beginning like a first stroke and ending like a subsequent) was produced by a new channel segment to ground branching off an old channel. This waveform classification depends on the presence or absence of high-frequency fine structure. Fourier analysis shows that first-stroke waveforms contain about 18 dB more spectral power in the frequency interval from 500 kHz to at least 7 MHz than subsequent-stroke waveforms for at least 13 microseconds after the main peak.

Willett, J. C.↗

Comment on the transmission-line model for computing radiation from lightning

The 'transmission-line' model is an approximation that is frequently used to relate the electric and magnetic fields radiated during lightning discharges to the currents that produce those fields. A principal prediction of this model is that the distant (radiation) fields are directly proportional to the current propagating along the lightning channel, multiplied by the velocity of propagation. This paper examines the derivation of this relationship and its implications in some detail. It is shown that the formulas commonly used to describe the transmission-line model cannot be correctly applied to many lightning processes. A correction factor is required that is significant when the channel is not oriented perpendicular to the line of sight to the observer, unless the propagation velocity is only a small fraction of the speed of light. An important implication of this more general version of the model is that the current and velocity decouple so that they could be separately determined by suitable, multistation measurements.

Le Vine, D. M.↗

Lightning electromagnetic radiation field spectra in the interval from 0.2 to 20 MHz

New Fourier transforms of wideband time-domain electric fields (E) produced by lightning (recorded at the Kennedy Space Center during the summers of 1985 and 1987) were recorded in such a way that several different events in each lightning flash could be captured. Average HF spectral amplitudes for first return strokes, stepped-leader steps, and 'characteristic pulses' are given for significantly more events, at closer ranges, and with better spectral resolution than in previous literature reports. The method of recording gives less bias toward the first large event in the flash and thus yields a large sample of a wide variety of lightning processes. As a result, reliable composite spectral amplitudes are obtained for a number of different processes in cloud-to-ground lightning over the frequency interval from 0.2 to 20 MHz.

Willett, J. C.↗

Comparison of fast electric field changes from subsequent return strokes of natural and triggered lightning

Fast electric field changes from subsequent return strokes of natural and triggered lightning with propagation paths almost entirely over water are compared. Data were collected at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, during the summer of 1987. Comparisons have been made of the average shape, the risetime, and the spectrum of the electric field changes. To a first approximation, the waveforms are very similar; however, the electric field changes from the triggered flashes tend to rise to peak faster and decay faster than do their counterparts in natural cloud-to-ground flashes.

Le Vine, D. M.↗

An experimental test of the 'transmission-line model' of electromagnetic radiation from triggered lightning return strokes

Peak currents, two-dimensional average propagation speeds, and electric field waveforms for a number of subsequent return strikes in rocket-triggered lightning flashes were measured in order to test the 'transmission-line model' of return-stroke radiation of Uman and McLain (1970). Reasonable agreement is found between the propagation speeds measured with the streak camera and those deduced from the transmission-line model. A modification of the model is proposed in which two wave fronts travel upward and downward away from a junction point a short distance above the ground.

Willett, J. C.↗