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Wolfson, N.

Publications and source records attributed to Wolfson, N..

9 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

The effect of SST and soil moisture anomalies on GLA model simulations of the 1988 U.S. summer drought

A series of simulations of the late spring and early summer of 1988 were conducted in order to study the relative importance of different boundary forcings to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) model's simulation of the heat wave and drought over the Great Plains of the United States during this time period. Separate 60-day simulations were generated from 10, 20, and 30 May 1988 with a variety of boundary condition datasets. For the control experiment, climatological boundary conditions were used. This was followed by experiments in which either the observed 1988 sea surface temperatures (SST) or derived 1988 soil moisture values, or both, were used in place of the climatological fields. Additional experiments were conducted in which only tropical or midlatitude SST anomalies were used. The impact of the different boundary forcings was evaluated relative to the control simulations of the precipitation and surface air temperature over the Great Plains. It was found that the tropical SST anomalies had a significant effect in reducing precipitation in this area, while the midlatitude anomalies did not. Due to the prescribed climatological soil moistures for the SST experiments, a significant increase in surface temperature did not occur in these simulations. In contrast, the simulations with the anomalous 1988 soil moistures produced both a larger reduction of precipitation and a significant increase in surface temperature over the Great Plains. The simulations with both anomalous SST and soil moisture showed only a slight augmentation of the heat wave and drought relative to the experiments with anomalous soil moisture alone.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Numerical prediction experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The GLA (Goddard Laboratory for Atmosphere) fourth-order model predictions of the summer 1980 heat wave are examined to assess the skill of the model in numerically forecasting the initiation of the heat wave and the sensitivity of the model predictions to initial conditions and boundary forcing. Results of experiments indicate that the model predictions are sensitive to the initial conditions. The sensitivity of the model to anomalous boundary forcing is found to be generally larger than its sensitivity to initial conditions at extended ranges. The results of the study suggest that models may be useful in forecasting similar events if adequate determinations of the evolving boundary forcing can be made in real time.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Numerical experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM was used in a series of medium-range numerical forecast experiments in order to improve understanding of the severe summer 1980 heat wave over the U.S. The results show that the derived soil moisture anomalies in the summer of 1980 contributed positively to the model's simulation of the heat wave maintenance, and suggest that once a region of reduced soil moisture is established, it tends to persist and maintain warmer and drier conditions. The lower soil moisture values resulted in reduced evaporation, higher ground temperatures, increased sensible heat flux from ground to air, higher surface air temperature, lower sea-level pressure, and higher 500-mb height. The effects of North Pacific sea-surface-temperature anomalies were mostly opposite to those of the soil-moisture anomalies: enhanced northerly flow of cooler drier air, increased evaporation, lower ground and air temperature, higher sea level pressure, and lower 500 mb heights over the Great Plains.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Objective Determination of Heat Wave Patterns

A simple index was developed in order to objectively characterize a heat wave pattern in either analyses or forecasts of 500 mb height. 500 mb height was chosen because this parameter is usually among the most accurate fields predicted by numerical models. In addition, it is highly correlated with the surface air temperature on many time scales. The heat index IN is designed to be applied to any region of interest and to be used for any objectively analyzed data and specifically those of NWP models.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments on the Summer 1980 Heat Wave and Drought

During the summer of 1980, a prolonged heat wave and drought affected the United States. A preliminary set of experiments has been conducted to study the effect of varying boundary conditions on the GLA model simulation of the heat wave. Five 10-day numerical integrations with three different specifications of boundary conditions were carried out: a control experiment which utilized climatological boundary conditions, an SST experiment which utilized summer 1980 sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific, but climatological values elsewhere, and a Soil Moisture experiment which utilized the values of Mintz-Serafini for the summer, 1980. The starting dates for the five forecasts were 11 June, 7 July, 21 July, 22 August, and 6 September of 1980. These dates were specifically chosen as days when a heat wave was already established in order to investigate the effect of soil moistures or North Pacific sea-surface temperatures on the model's ability to maintain the heat wave pattern. The experiments were evaluated in terms of the heat wave index for the South Plains, North Plains, Great Plains and the entire U.S. In addition a subjective comparison of map patterns has been performed.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A numerical investigation of the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The diagnostic framework being utilized by researchers at NASA-Goddard in a numerical analysis of the draught which occurred in the U.S. in 1980 described, along with preliminary results. Attention is focused on the wave structure at 500 mb and comparisons of this structure with NMC data from 1963-77 to define conditions during the initiation, maintenance and decay of a draught. Attempts are also being made to develop a simple index for the diagnosis of heat patterns using as input data from the 500 mb analysis. Early studies involving the examination of the effects of varying boundary conditions have revealed a positive contribution from the soil moisture fields and a negative contribution from the North Pacific sea surface temperature during the event. Studies are continuing to characterize phenomena during draught initiation and decay.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The impact of satellite soundings and their distribution on forecast accuracy

The impact of satellite data is found to vary considerably from one map to another and from one geographic region to another. However, the impact of satellite data is generally small in comparison with forecast error. On the average, over land areas (where good conventional data permit accurate verification), the impact of satellite data on 48-hr forecasts of 500-mb height is seen to be neutral. Indirect numerical evidence is found, however, that satellite data has a marked positive impact in the lower and middle troposphere in ocean regions, especially those regions where conventional data are sparse. The impact over oceans is found to be especially noticeable in maps depicting the mean differences between the satellite and the conventional-data-only maps averaged over the period of the data set (January 1-14, 1980), both for analyses and for forecasts to 48 hours.

Thomasell, A., Jr.↗