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Xie, Yu

Publications and source records attributed to Xie, Yu.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Models and Measurements to Estimate Solar Radiation for 1-Axis Tracking Modules at NREL’s SRRL

Solar radiation reaching photovoltaic (PV) modules on a 1-axis tracking system can be measured by reference cells or thermopiles. The former is often biased due to the reflection of solar radiation by the glass cover of the PV. The uncertainty can be moderated by applying a correction factor, as a function of solar incident angle and the refractive index of the glass, to the measurement. On the other hand, solar radiation on the inclined PV panels can be computed by transposition models using global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations from thermopiles. This study examines the models and measurements to estimate solar radiation for 1-axis tracking modules at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). The 1-minute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances from 2019 are computed using the observed GHIs and a transposition model developed by Perez et al. The POA irradiances are compared with the observation by an IMT reference cell and a Kipp & Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) thermopile. For the SRRL’s 1-axis tracking system with an annual solar energy of 2323.9 kWh/m 2 , the POA irradiance is overestimated by ~70 kWh/m 2 using the transposition model. This bias is reduced by more than 50% using the IMT measurements calibrated by a correction factor for a PV surface of antireflection coated glass.

POA irradiance↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.

analog ensemble↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Prediction of Cloud Properties in Satellite-Derived Solar Data

With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a vital public data asset. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) that explicitly considers the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on radiative transfer. High-quality physical and optical cloud properties derived from satellite imagery are perhaps the most important data inputs to the PSM, representing the greatest source of radiation attenuation and scattering. However, traditional methods for cloud property retrieval have their own limitations and are unable to accurately predict cloud properties outside of nominal conditions. We introduce a physics-guided neural network that can accurately predict cloud properties when traditional methods fail or are inaccurate. Using this framework, we show reductions in relative Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) up to 13 percentage points for timesteps that previously had missing or low-quality cloud property data. We expect that this methodology will be effective in improving the quality of cloud property and solar irradiance data in the NSRDB.

cloud properties↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Models and Measurements to Estimate Solar Radiation for 1-Axis Tracking Modules at NREL's SRRL: Preprint

Solar radiation reaching photovoltaic (PV) modules on a 1-axis tracking system can be measured by reference cells or thermopiles. The former is often biased due to the reflection of solar radiation by the glass cover of the PV. The uncertainty can be moderated by applying a correction factor, as a function of solar incident angle and the refractive index of the glass, to the measurement. On the other hand, solar radiation on the inclined PV panels can be computed by transposition models using global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations from thermopiles. This study examines the models and measurements to estimate solar radiation for 1-axis tracking modules at National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL). The 1-minute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances in 2019 are computed using the observed GHIs and a transposition model developed by Perez et al. The POA irradiances are compared with the observation by an IMT reference cell and a Kipp & Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) thermopile. For SRRL’s 1-axis tracking system with the annual solar energy of 2323.9 kWh/m2, the POA irradiance is overestimated by ~70 kWh/m2 using the transposition model. This bias is reduced by more than 50% using the IMT measurements calibrated by a correction factor for a PV surface of antireflection coated glass.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Improved Algorithm for Estimating Surface Shortwave Radiation: Preliminary Evaluation With MODIS Products

Cloud parameters, as key inputs in radiative transfer algorithms, have a critical impact on surface shortwave radiation (SSR) computation. By introducing a parameterization of cloud transmittance and reflectance, based on radiative transfer simulations, this study improves the accuracy of an existing physically based model which severely underestimates SSR under thick cloud conditions. The cloud parameterization adopts the single-layer cloud model and simulates cloud transmittances and reflectances by varying cloud optical thickness, cloud particle size, and solar zenith angle. The revised model is applied to estimate instantaneous SSR using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric and land products. The retrieved SSR is evaluated against observation data from 41 Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations and is also compared with the MODIS official SSR product. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimated instantaneous radiation is approximately 52 and 98 W m -2 under clear-sky and all-sky conditions, respectively. The accuracy of the improved parameterization is higher than that of the original model, and there is no obvious underestimation of SSR in the case of high cloud optical thickness. Therefore, the new algorithm improves the accuracy of SSR estimates in the presence of thick clouds. Retrievals with the improved model also achieve higher accuracy than the MODIS official SSR product (MCD18A1). To conclude, the reliable performance of the scheme at most BSRN stations illustrates that the improved model can be used to map SSR on a global scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pressure-induced high-temperature superconductivity retained without pressure in FeSe single crystals

To raise the superconducting-transition temperature (T c ) has been the driving force for the long-sustained effort in superconductivity research. Recent progress in hydrides with T c s up to 287 K under pressure of 267 GPa has heralded a new era of room temperature superconductivity (RTS) with immense technological promise. Indeed, RTS will lift the temperature barrier for the ubiquitous application of superconductivity. Unfortunately, formidable pressure is required to attain such high T c s. The most effective relief to this impasse is to remove the pressure needed while retaining the pressure-induced T c without pressure. Here, we show such a possibility in the pure and doped high-temperature superconductor (HTS) FeSe by retaining, at ambient pressure via pressure quenching (PQ), its T c up to 37 K (quadrupling that of a pristine FeSe at ambient) and other pressure-induced phases. We have also observed that some phases remain stable without pressure at up to 300 K and for at least 7 d. The observations are in qualitative agreement with our ab initio simulations using the solid-state nudged elastic band (SSNEB) method. We strongly believe that the PQ technique developed here can be adapted to the RTS hydrides and other materials of value with minimal effort.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spectral Denoising for Accelerated Analysis of Correlated Ionic Transport

Computation of correlated ionic transport properties from molecular dynamics in the Green-Kubo formalism is expensive, as one cannot rely on the affordable mean square displacement approach. We use spectral decomposition of the short-time ionic displacement covariance to learn a set of diffusion eigenmodes that encode the correlation structure and form a basis for analyzing the ionic trajectories. This allows systematic reduction of the uncertainty and accelerate computations of ionic conductivity in systems with a steady-state correlation structure. We provide mathematical and numerical proofs of the method’s robustness and demonstrate it on realistic electrolyte materials.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Prediction of Cloud Properties in Satellite-Derived Solar Data: Preprint

With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a vital public data asset. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) that explicitly considers the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on radiative transfer. High-quality physical and optical cloud properties derived from satellite imagery are perhaps the most important data input to the PSM, representing the greatest source of radiation attenuation and scattering. However, traditional methods for cloud property retrieval have their own limitations and are unable to accurately predict cloud properties outside of nominal conditions. We introduce a physics-guided neural network that can accurately predict cloud properties when traditional methods fail or are inaccurate. Using this framework, we show reductions in relative Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) up to 13 percentage points for timesteps that previously had missing or low-quality cloud property data. We expect that this methodology will be effective in improving the quality of cloud property and solar irradiance data in the NSRDB.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Replication Data for: Evolution of Metastable Structures at Bimetallic Surfaces from Microscopy and Machine-Learning Molecular Dynamics

The data underlying this published work have been made publicly available in this repository as part of the IMASC Data Management Plan. This work was supported as part of the Integrated Mesoscale Architectures for Sustainable Catalysis (IMASC), an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Basic Energy Sciences under Award # DE-SC0012573.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) [SWR-16-18]

The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) is used to compute cloudy irradiance. Radiative transfer (RT) models simulating broadband solar radiation have been widely used by atmospheric scientists to model solar resources for various energy applications such as operational forecasting. Due to the complexity of solving the RT equation, the computation under cloudy conditions can be extremely time consuming though many approximations (e.g. two-stream approach and delta-M truncation scheme) have been utilized. Thus, a more efficient RT model is crucial for model developers as a new option for approximating solar radiation at the land surface with minimal loss of accuracy. We have developed a fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) using the simplified clear-sky RT model, REST2, and simulated cloud transmittances and reflectances from the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM) with a sixteen-stream Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT). Simulated lookup tables (LUTs) of cloud transmittances and reflectances were created by varying cloud optical thicknesses, cloud particle sizes, and solar zenith angles. Equations with optimized parameters were fitted to the cloud transmittances and reflectances to develop the model. Using this model the all-sky solar irradiance at the land surface can be computed rapidly by combining REST2 with the cloud transmittances and reflectances. This new RT model is more than 1000 times faster than those currently utilized in solar resource assessment and forecasting since it does not explicitly solve the RT equation for each individual cloud condition. Our results indicate the accuracy of the fast radiative transfer model is comparable to or better than two-stream approximation in term of computing cloud transmittance and solar radiation.

Xie, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian force fields from active learning for simulation of inter-dimensional transformation of stanene

Abstract We present a way to dramatically accelerate Gaussian process models for interatomic force fields based on many-body kernels by mapping both forces and uncertainties onto functions of low-dimensional features. This allows for automated active learning of models combining near-quantum accuracy, built-in uncertainty, and constant cost of evaluation that is comparable to classical analytical models, capable of simulating millions of atoms. Using this approach, we perform large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of the stability of the stanene monolayer. We discover an unusual phase transformation mechanism of 2D stanene, where ripples lead to nucleation of bilayer defects, densification into a disordered multilayer structure, followed by formation of bulk liquid at high temperature or nucleation and growth of the 3D bcc crystal at low temperature. The presented method opens possibilities for rapid development of fast accurate uncertainty-aware models for simulating long-time large-scale dynamics of complex materials.

Chemistry↗