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NASA NTRS2023

Long-Term Geospace Climate Monitoring

Climate change is characterized by global surface warming associated with the increase of greenhouse gas population since the start of the industrial era. Growing evidence shows that the upper atmosphere is experiencing appreciable cooling over the last several decades. The seminal modeling study by Roble and Dickinson (1989) suggested potential effects of increased greenhouse gases on the ionosphere and thermosphere cooling which appear consistent with some observations. However, several outstanding issues remain regarding the role of CO 2 , other important contributors, and impacts of the cooling trend in the ionosphere and thermosphere: for example, (1) what is the regional variability of the trends? (2) the very strong ionospheric cooling observed by multiple incoherent scatter radars that does not fit with the prevailing theory based on the argument of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases, why? (3) what is the effect of secular changes in Earth’s main magnetic field? Is it visible now in the ionospheric data and can it explain some of the regional variability in the observed ionospheric trends? (4) what is the impact of long-term cooling in the thermosphere on operational systems? (5) what are the appropriate strategic plans to ensure the long-term monitoring of the critical space climate?

long-term trends↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global 3-D Ionospheric Electron Density Reanalysis Based on Multisource Data Assimilation

We report preliminary results of a global 3-D ionospheric electron density reanalysis demonstration study during 2002-2011 based on multisource data assimilation. The monthly global ionospheric electron density reanalysis has been done by assimilating the quiet days ionospheric data into a data assimilation model constructed using the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2007 model and a Kalman filter technique. These data include global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from ground-based stations, ionospheric radio occultations by CHAMP, GRACE, COSMIC, SAC-C, Metop-A, and the TerraSAR-X satellites, and Jason-1 and 2 altimeter TEC measurements. The output of the reanalysis are 3-D gridded ionospheric electron densities with temporal and spatial resolutions of 1 h in universal time, 5deg in latitude, 10deg in longitude, and approx.30 km in altitude. The climatological features of the reanalysis results, such as solar activity dependence, seasonal variations, and the global morphology of the ionosphere, agree well with those in the empirical models and observations. The global electron content derived from the international GNSS service global ionospheric maps, the observed electron density profiles from the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar during 2007-2010, and foF2 observed by the global ionosonde network during 2002-2011 are used to validate the reanalysis method. All comparisons show that the reanalysis have smaller deviations and biases than the IRI-2007 predictions. Especially after April 2006 when the six COSMIC satellites were launched, the reanalysis shows significant improvement over the IRI predictions. The obvious overestimation of the low-latitude ionospheric F region densities by the IRI model during the 23/24 solar minimum is corrected well by the reanalysis. The potential application and improvements of the reanalysis are also discussed.

Xinan Yue↗