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Yuan, Wenping

Publications and source records attributed to Yuan, Wenping.

16 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon accumulation rate peaks at 1,000-m elevation in tropical planted and regrowth forests

Tropical planted and regrowth forests (TPRFs) are one of the most low-cost components for recovering biomass-stored carbon in the tropics. Nevertheless, challenges persist in pinpointing which elevational ranges exhibit the largest carbon accumulation rate ($γ$ rapid ) due to the highly inconsistent previous assessments. This prevents the selection of optimal locations for implementing large-scale reforestation in the tropics. Here, in this study, we proposed a refined approach that used a carbon accumulation threshold (<80% of the maximum value) to quantify $γ$ rapid in TPRFs at various elevations. We find that $γ$ rapid increases with elevations from 300 to 1,000 m and declines at elevations >1,000 m. TPRFs at elevations ~1,000 m exhibit three times more $γ$ rapid than lowland TPRFs. This optimal elevation, highly dependent on background temperatures, varies slightly but significantly across different mountains. These findings provide guidelines for policymakers to determine the optimal elevations from regional to continental scales when implementing reforestation initiatives in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project

The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020)

Land-use change (LUC) is a major source of global anthropogenic carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. However, current estimates of LUC-induced emissions vary widely with differences in data and models, making it challenging to identify and manage emissions hotspots by location and LUC activity. Here, we estimated spatially explicit carbon fluxes associated with global major gross land-use transitions based on a new bookkeeping model (i.e., LUCE). Between 1961 and 2020, LUC induced 215 and 142 Pg C of global carbon emissions and removals, respectively, resulting in average net emissions (E LUC ) of 1.21 Pg C year −1 . Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa dominated global E LUC with 69% of 60-year cumulative emissions, or about 86% between 2001 and 2020. Forest-related LUC activities (e.g., deforestation, reforestation) contributed largely to both regional and global carbon fluxes. Our findings shed new light on identifying LUC-induced emissions hotspots and managing land for climate mitigation and conservation.

bookkeeping model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr —1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of —1.9 GtCO 2 yr —1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO 2 yr —1 ). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (—6.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Shifts in Vegetation Phenology on the Carbon Balance of a Semiarid Sagebrush Ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are critical in regulating the interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. The responses of such ecosystems to weather and environmental conditions remain important factors that limit the accurate projections of carbon balance under future climate change. Here, we investigated how shifts in vegetation phenology resulting from changes in weather and environmental conditions influenced ecosystem carbon cycling in one semiarid ecosystem in the Hanford area of central Washington, United States. We examined two years of measurements of the phenology camera, eddy covariance, and soil chamber from an upland semiarid sagebrush ecosystem. Both years had contrasting diel and seasonal patterns of CO 2 fluxes, primarily driven by differences in vegetation phenology. The net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) in 2019 were enlarged by shifted vegetation phenology, as a cold and snow-covered winter and warm and dry winter in 2020 resulted in constrained magnitudes of NEE and ET during the summer months. The annual gross primary productivity (GPP) was much higher in 2019 than in 2020 (-211 vs. -112 gC m -2 ), whereas ecosystem respiration was comparable in these two years (164 vs. 144 gC m -2 ). Thus, the annual NEE in 2019 was negative (-47 gC m -2 ) with the sagebrush ecosystem functioning as a carbon sink, while the positive annual NEE in 2020 indicated that the sagebrush ecosystem functioned as a carbon source. Our results demonstrate that winter snowpack can be a critical driver of annual carbon uptake in semiarid sagebrush ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018

The sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation (S ppt ) is a key metric for understanding the variations in vegetation productivity under changing precipitation and predicting future changes in ecosystem functions. However, a comprehensive assessment of S ppt over all the global land is lacking. Here, we investigated spatial patterns and temporal changes of S ppt across the global land from 2001 to 2018 with multiple streams of satellite observations. We found consistent spatial patterns of S ppt with different satellite products: S ppt was highest in dry regions while low in humid regions. Grassland and shrubland showed the highest S ppt , and evergreen needle-leaf forest and wetland showed the lowest. Temporally, S ppt showed a generally declining trend over the past two decades (p < .05), yet with clear spatial heterogeneities. The decline in S ppt was especially noticeable in North America and Europe, likely due to the increase in precipitation. In central Russia and Australia, however, S ppt showed an increasing trend. Biome-wise, most ecosystem types exhibited significant decrease in S ppt , while grassland, evergreen broadleaf forest, and mixed forest showed slight increases or non-significant changes in S ppt . Our finding of the overall decline in S ppt implies a potential stabilization mechanism for ecosystem productivity under climate change. However, the revealed S ppt increase for some regions and ecosystem types, in particular global grasslands, suggests that grasslands might be increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability with continuing global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process‐Model Perspective on Recent Changes in the Carbon Cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year —1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year —1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year —1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year —1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (—0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year —1 ). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-site assessment of the potential of fine resolution red-edge vegetation indices for estimating gross primary production

Gross primary production (GPP) models driven by fine resolution remote sensing data characterize the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in plant photosynthesis, which is largely dependent on biome-specific maximum photosynthetic capacity. The red-edge reflectance, sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, is a good proxy of maximum photosynthetic capacity. More importantly, studies show that the red-edge reflectance-related chlorophyll content index (CIr) multiplied by the incident photosynthetic active radiation (PAR in ) strongly correlates to GPP estimated at carbon flux towers (GPP flux ). Yet, to the best of our knowledge, there is no systematic study investigating the general relationship between fine spatial resolution CIr and GPP among biomes and the relationship between CIr and maximum photosynthetic capacity in GPP models. To provide an overview on incorporating space-borne CIr into a GPP model, we applied fine resolution Sentinel-2-derived CIr and GPP flux over 57 flux sites representative of 10 biomes. We investigated the relationship between CIr and GPP flux , and the spatio-temporal relationship between CIr and ecosystem maximum photosynthetic capacity indicated by the potential ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE pot ). We also evaluated the relationship between other five vegetation indices (VIs) and GPP flux . Results showed that the CIr multiplied by PARin has a higher agreement (R 2 > 0.5) with GPP than other VIs. A universal relationship exists between the CIr multiplied by PARin and GPP, except for forest biomes. The CIr also strongly (R 2 > 0.5) relates to the LUE pot during the peak of the growing season. The CIr has a low spatial variance (CV = 0.25) among biomes, highlighting that CIr can be a proxy of maximum photosynthetic capacity in GPP models that do not require biome-dependent coefficients. This study provides insight for incorporating CIr into GPP models and better quantifying global terrestrial photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO 2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO 2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decoupling of greenness and gross primary productivity as aridity decreases

Ecosystem primary productivity is a key ecological process influencing many ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Thus, clarifying how primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems responds to climatic variability can reveal key mechanisms that will drive future changes in the global carbon budget. Satellite products of canopy greenness are widely used as proxies for vegetation productivity to evaluate how ecosystems respond to climate variability. However, to what degree inter-annual variations in productivity are consistent with greenness and how this relationship varies spatially remains unclear. Here we investigated the strength of the coupling between inter-annual variations in leaf area index (LAI, a measure of greenness) and ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from eddy covariance towers, i.e., the r2 of the LAI-GPP relationship. Overall, inter-annual GPP and LAI were highly coupled (i.e., high r2) in arid grasslands, but were fully decoupled in mesic evergreen broadleaf forests, indicating that this relationship varies strongly along aridity gradients. A possible mechanism of the spatial variation in the LAI-GPP relationship is that the tradeoff between ecosystem structure (LAI) and physiology (photosynthesis per unit leaf area) becomes stronger in more humid climates. Land models overestimated the r2 of LAI-GPP correlation for most ecosystem types and failed to capture the spatial pattern along aridity gradients. We conclude that relying on greenness products for evaluating inter-annual changes in vegetation productivity may bias assessments, especially in tropical rainforest ecosystems. Our findings may also reconcile observed disparities between responses in greenness and GPP during drought in Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink?

The Global Carbon Project estimates that the terrestrial biosphere has absorbed about one-third of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions during the 1959–2019 period. This sink-estimate is produced by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models and is consistent with the land uptake inferred from the residual of emissions and ocean uptake. The purpose of our study is to understand how well terrestrial biosphere models reproduce the processes that drive the terrestrial carbon sink. One challenge is to decide what level of agreement between model output and observation-based reference data is adequate considering that reference data are prone to uncertainties. To define such a level of agreement, we compute benchmark scores that quantify the similarity between independently derived reference data sets using multiple statistical metrics. Models are considered to perform well if their model scores reach benchmark scores. Our results show that reference data can differ considerably, causing benchmark scores to be low. Model scores are often of similar magnitude as benchmark scores, implying that model performance is reasonable given how different reference data are. While model performance is encouraging, ample potential for improvements remains, including a reduction in a positive leaf area index bias, improved representations of processes that govern soil organic carbon in high latitudes, and an assessment of causes that drive the inter-model spread of gross primary productivity in boreal regions and humid tropics. The success of future model development will increasingly depend on our capacity to reduce and account for observational uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗