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Zapata, Edgar

Publications and source records attributed to Zapata, Edgar.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

An Analysis and Review of Measures and Relationships in Space Transportation Affordability

The affordability of transportation to or from space is of continued interest across numerous and diverse stakeholders in our aerospace industry. Such an important metric as affordability deserves a clear understanding among stakeholders about what is meant by affordability, costs, and related terms, as otherwise it's difficult to see where specific improvements are needed or where to target specific investments. As captured in the famous words of Lewis Carroll, "If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there". As important as understanding a metric may be, with terms such as costs, prices, specific costs, average costs, marginal costs, etc., it is equally important to understand the relationship among these measures. In turn, these measures intermingle with caveats and factors that introduce more measures in need of a common understanding among stakeholders. These factors include flight rates, capability, and payload. This paper seeks to review the costs of space transportation systems and the relationships among the many factors involved in costs from the points of view of diverse decision makers. A decision maker may have an interest in acquiring a single launch considering the best price (along with other factors in their business case), or an interest in many launches over time. Alternately, a decision maker may have a specific interest in developing a space transportation system that will offer certain prices, or flight rate capability, or both, at a certain up-front cost. The question arises for the later, to reuse or to expend? As it is necessary in thinking about the future to clearly understand the past and the present, this paper will present data and graphics to assist stakeholders in visualizing trends and the current state of affairs in the launch industry. At all times, raw data will be referenced (or made available separately) alongside detailed explanations about the data, so as to avoid the confusion or misleading conclusions that occur more often than not with complex graphs or statements when such context is lacking.

affordability↗
NASA NTRS2014

Life Cycle Analysis of Dedicated Nano-Launch Technologies

Recent technology advancements have enabled the development of small cheap satellites that can perform useful functions in the space environment. Currently, the only low cost option for getting these payloads into orbit is through ride share programs - small satellites awaiting the launch of a larger satellite, and then riding along on the same launcher. As a result, these small satellite customers await primary payload launches and a backlog exists. An alternative option would be dedicated nano-launch systems built and operated to provide more flexible launch services, higher availability, and affordable prices. The potential customer base that would drive requirements or support a business case includes commercial, academia, civil government and defense. Further, NASA technology investments could enable these alternative game changing options. With this context, in 2013 the Game Changing Development (GCD) program funded a NASA team to investigate the feasibility of dedicated nano-satellite launch systems with a recurring cost of less than $2 million per launch for a 5 kg payload to low Earth orbit. The team products would include potential concepts, technologies and factors for enabling the ambitious cost goal, exploring the nature of the goal itself, and informing the GCD program technology investment decision making process. This paper provides an overview of the life cycle analysis effort that was conducted in 2013 by an inter-center NASA team. This effort included the development of reference nano-launch system concepts, developing analysis processes and models, establishing a basis for cost estimates (development, manufacturing and launch) suitable to the scale of the systems, and especially, understanding the relationship of potential game changing technologies to life cycle costs, as well as other factors, such as flights per year.

nanolaunch↗
NASA NTRS2014

Life Cycle Analysis of Dedicated Nano-Launch Technologies

Recent technology advancements have enabled the development of small cheap satellites that can perform useful functions in the space environment. Currently, the only low cost option for getting these payloads into orbit is through ride share programs. As a result, these launch opportunities await primary payload launches and a backlog exists. An alternative option would be dedicated nano-launch systems built and operated to provide more flexible launch services, higher availability, and affordable prices. The potential customer base that would drive requirements or support a business case includes commercial, academia, civil government and defense. Further, NASA technology investments could enable these alternative game changing options.With this context, in 2013 the Game Changing Development (GCD) program funded a NASA team to investigate the feasibility of dedicated nano-satellite launch systems with a recurring cost of less than $2 million per launch for a 5 kg payload to low Earth orbit. The team products would include potential concepts, technologies and factors for enabling the ambitious cost goal, exploring the nature of the goal itself, and informing the GCD program technology investment decision making process. This paper provides an overview of the life cycle analysis effort that was conducted in 2013 by an inter-center NASA team. This effort included the development of reference nano-launch system concepts, developing analysis processes and models, establishing a basis for cost estimates (development, manufacturing and launch) suitable to the scale of the systems, and especially, understanding the relationship of potential game changing technologies to life cycle costs, as well as other factors, such as flights per year.

modeling↗
NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here.

Zapata, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here.

Zapata, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrating Efficiency of Industry Processes and Practices Alongside Technology Effectiveness in Space Transportation Cost Modeling and Analysis

This paper presents past and current work in dealing with indirect industry and NASA costs when providing cost estimation or analysis for NASA projects and programs. Indirect costs, when defined as those costs in a project removed from the actual hardware or software hands-on labor; makes up most of the costs of today's complex large scale NASA space/industry projects. This appears to be the case across phases from research into development into production and into the operation of the system. Space transportation is the case of interest here. Modeling and cost estimation as a process rather than a product will be emphasized. Analysis as a series of belief systems in play among decision makers and decision factors will also be emphasized to provide context.

Zapata, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2012

Making the Case for Reusable Booster Systems: The Operations Perspective

Presentation to the Aeronautics Space Engineering Board National Research Council Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment Committee. Addresses: the criteria and assumptions used in the formulation of current RBS plans; the methodologies used in the current cost estimates for RBS; the modeling methodology used to frame the business case for an RBS capability including: the data used in the analysis, the models' robustness if new data become available, and the impact of unclassified government data that was previously unavailable and which will be supplied by the USAF; the technical maturity of key elements critical to RBS implementation and the ability of current technology development plans to meet technical readiness milestones.

reusable launch vehicle↗
NASA NTRS2011

Air Force Reusable Booster System: A Quick-look, Design Focused Modeling and Cost Analysis Study

This paper presents a method and an initial analysis of the costs of a reusable booster system (RBS) as envisioned by the US Department of Defense (DoD) and numerous initiatives that form the concept of Operationally Responsive Space (ORS). This paper leverages the knowledge gained from decades of experience with the semi-reusable NASA Space Shuttle to understand how the costs of a military next generation semi-reusable space transport might behave in the real world - and how it might be made as affordable as desired. The NASA Space Shuttle had a semi-expendable booster, that being the reusable Solid Rocket MotorslBoosters (SRMlSRB) and the expendable cryogenic External Tank (ET), with a reusable cargo and crew capable orbiter. This paper will explore DoD concepts that invert this architectural arrangement, using a reusable booster plane that flies back to base soon after launch, with the in-space elements of the launch system being the expendable portions. Cost estimating in the earliest stages of any potential, large scale program has limited usefulness. As a result, the emphasis here is on developing an approach, a structure, and the basic concepts that could continue to be matured as the program gains knowledge. Where cost estimates are provided, these results by necessity carry many caveats and assumptions, and this analysis becomes more about ways in which drivers of costs for diverse scenarios can be better understood. The paper is informed throughout with a design-for-cost philosophy whereby the design and technology features of the proposed RBS (who and what, the "architecture") are taken as linked at the hip to a desire to perform a certain mission (where and when), and together these inform the cost, responsiveness, performance and sustainability (how) of the system. Concepts for developing, acquiring, producing or operating the system will be shown for their inextricable relationship to the "architecture" of the system, and how these too relate to costs. Design and technology features bear special relevance to early program research and development directions. Given the uncertainties involved in both their actual performance promise and their relation to costs of operational systems, this later relationship is also given special attention.

Zapata, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2011

Pros, Cons, and Alternatives to Weight Based Cost Estimating

Many cost estimating tools use weight as a major parameter in projecting the cost. This is often combined with modifying factors such as complexity, technical maturity of design, environment of operation, etc. to increase the fidelity of the estimate. For a set of conceptual designs, all meeting the same requirements, increased weight can be a major driver in increased cost. However, once a design is fixed, increased weight generally decreases cost, while decreased weight generally increases cost - and the relationship is not linear. Alternative approaches to estimating cost without using weight (except perhaps for materials costs) have been attempted to try to produce a tool usable throughout the design process - from concept studies through development. This paper will address the pros and cons of using weight based models for cost estimating, using liquid rocket engines as the example. It will then examine approaches that minimize the imp~ct of weight based cost estimating. The Rocket Engine- Cost Model (RECM) is an attribute based model developed internally by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne for NASA. RECM will be presented primarily to show a successful method to use design and programmatic parameters instead of weight to estimate both design and development costs and production costs. An operations model developed by KSC, the Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations model (LLEGO), will also be discussed.

Joyner, Claude R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Life Cycle Cost Lessons Learned

This paper will review lessons learned for space transportation systems from the viewpoint of the NASA, Industry and academia Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST). The paper provides the basic idea and history of "lessons learned". Recommendations that are extremely relevant to NASA's future investments in research, program development and operations are"'provided. Lastly, a novel and useful approach to documenting lessons learned is recommended, so as to most effectively guide future NASA investments. Applying lessons learned can significantly improve access to space for cargo or people by focusing limited funds on the right areas and needs for improvement. Many NASA human space flight initiatives have faltered, been re-directed or been outright canceled since the birth of the Space Shuttle program. The reasons given at the time have been seemingly unique. It will be shown that there are common threads as lessons learned in many a past initiative.

Zapata, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2009

Shuttle Shortfalls and Lessons Learned for the Sustainment of Human Space Exploration

Much debate and national soul searching has taken place over the value of the Space Shuttle which first flew in 1981 and which is currently scheduled to be retired in 2010. Originally developed post-Saturn Apollo to emphasize affordability and safety, the reusable Space Shuttle instead came to be perceived as economically unsustainable and lacking the technology maturity to assure safe, routine access to low earth orbit (LEO). After the loss of two crews, aboard Challenger and Columbia, followed by the decision to retire the system in 2010, it is critical that this three decades worth of human space flight experience be well understood. Understanding of the past is imperative to further those goals for which the Space Shuttle was a stepping-stone in the advancement of knowledge. There was significant reduction in life cycle costs between the Saturn Apollo and the Space Shuttle. However, the advancement in life cycle cost reduction from Saturn Apollo to the Space Shuttle fell far short of its goal. This paper will explore the reasons for this shortfall. Shortfalls and lessons learned can be categorized as related to design factors, at the architecture, element and sub-system levels, as well as to programmatic factors, in terms of goals, requirements, management and organization. Additionally, no review of the Space Shuttle program and attempt to take away key lessons would be complete without a strategic review. That is, how do national space goals drive future space transportation development strategies? The lessons of the Space Shuttle are invaluable in all respects - technical, as in design, program-wise, as in organizational approach and goal setting, and strategically, within the context of the generational march toward an expanded human presence in space. Beyond lessons though (and the innumerable papers, anecdotes and opinions published on this topic) this paper traces tangible, achievable steps, derived from the Space Shuttle program experience, that must be a part of any 2l century initiatives furthering a growing human presence beyond earth.

Zapata, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2009

Concepts for Life Cycle Cost Control Required to Achieve Space Transportation Affordability and Sustainability

Cost control must be implemented through the establishment of requirements and controlled continually by managing to these requirements. Cost control of the non-recurring side of life cycle cost has traditionally been implemented in both commercial and government programs. The government uses the budget process to implement this control. The commercial approach is to use a similar process of allocating the non-recurring cost to major elements of the program. This type of control generally manages through a work breakdown structure (WBS) by defining the major elements of the program. If the cost control is to be applied across the entire program life cycle cost (LCC), the approach must be addressed very differently. A functional breakdown structure (FBS) is defined and recommended. Use of a FBS provides the visibifity to allow the choice of an integrated solution reducing the cost of providing many different elements of like function. The different functional solutions that drive the hardware logistics, quantity of documentation, operational labor, reliability and maintainability balance, and total integration of the entire system from DDT&E through the life of the program must be fully defined, compared, and final decisions made among these competing solutions. The major drivers of recurring cost have been identified and are presented and discussed. The LCC requirements must be established and flowed down to provide control of LCC. This LCC control will require a structured rigid process similar to the one traditionally used to control weight/performance for space transportation systems throughout the entire program. It has been demonstrated over the last 30 years that without a firm requirement and methodically structured cost control, it is unlikely that affordable and sustainable space transportation system LCC will be achieved.

Rhodes, Russel E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Space Transportation Systems Life Cycle Cost Assessment and Control

Civil and military applications of space transportation have been pursued for just over 50 years and there has been, and still is, a need for safe, dependable, affordable, and sustainable space transportation systems. Fully expendable and partially reusable space transportation systems have been developed and put in operation that have not adequately achieved this need. Access to space is technically achievable, but presently very expensive and will remain so until there is a breakthrough in the way we do business. Since 1991 the national Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) has reviewed and assessed the lessons learned from the major U.S. space programs of the past decades focusing on what has been learned from the assessment and control of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) from these systems. This paper presents the results of a selected number of studies and analyses that have been conducted by the SPST addressing the need, as well as the solutions, for improvement in LCC. The major emphasis of the SPST processes is on developing the space transportation system requirements first (up front). These requirements must include both the usual system flight performance requirements and also the system functional requirements, including the infrastructure on Earth's surface, in-space and on the Moon and Mars surfaces to determine LCC. This paper describes the development of specific innovative engineering and management approaches and processes. This includes a focus on flight hardware maturity for reliability, ground operations approaches, and business processes between contractor and government organizations. A major change in program/project cost control is being proposed by the SPST to achieve a sustainable space transportation system LCC - controlling cost as a program metric in addition to the existing practice of controlling performance and weight. Without a firm requirement and methodically structured cost control, it is unlikely that an affordable and sustainable space transportation system LCC will ever be achieved. '

Robinson, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The NASA Human Space Flight Supply Chain, Current and Future

The current NASA Human Space Flight transportation system, the Space Shuttle, is scheduled for final flight in 2010. The Exploration initiative will create a new capability with a combination of existing systems and new flight and ground elements. To fully understand and act on the implications of such change it is necessary to understand what, how, when and where such changes occur and more importantly, how all these interact. This paper presents Human Space Flight, with an emphasis on KSC Launch and Landing, as a Supply Chain of both information and materials. A supply chain methodology for understanding the flow of information and materials is presented. Further, modeling and simulation projects funded by the Exploration initiative to understand the NASA Exploration Supply Chain are explained. Key concepts and their purpose, including the Enterprise, Locations, Physical and Organizational Functional Units, Products, and Resources, are explained. It is shown that the art, science and perspective of Supply Chain Management is not only applicable to such a government & contractor operation, it is also an invaluable approach for understanding, focusing improvement and growth. It is shown that such commercial practice applies to Human Space Flight and is invaluable towards one day creating routine, affordable access to and from space.

supply chain managemen↗
NASA NTRS2006

Foundations of Supply Chain Management for Space Application

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is a key piece of the framework for America's space technology investment as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the aerospace industry, and international partners embark on a bold new vision of human and robotic space exploration beyond Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO). This type of investment is driven by the Agency's need for cost efficient operational support associated with, processing and operating space vehicles and address many of the biggest operational challenge including extremely tight funding profiles, seamless program-to-program transition activities and the reduction of the time gap with human spaceflight capabilities in the post-Shuttle era. An investment of this magnitude is a multiyear task and must include new patterns of thought within the engineering community to respect the importance of SCM and the integration of the material and information flow. Experience within the Department of Defense and commercial sectors which has shown that support cost reductions and or avoidances of upwards to 35% over business as usual are achievable. It is SCM that will ultimately bring the solar system within the economic sphere of our society.

supply chain managemen↗
NASA NTRS2006

Space Exploration Supply Chain Modeling, Simulation and Analysis Using the SCOR Model

sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond. Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations. Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructure both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests

space operations↗
NASA NTRS2005

Portfolio Analysis Tool

Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) is a Web-based, client/server computer program that helps managers of multiple projects funded by different customers to make decisions regarding investments in those projects. PAT facilitates analysis on a macroscopic level, without distraction by parochial concerns or tactical details of individual projects, so that managers decisions can reflect the broad strategy of their organization. PAT is accessible via almost any Web-browser software. Experts in specific projects can contribute to a broad database that managers can use in analyzing the costs and benefits of all projects, but do not have access for modifying criteria for analyzing projects: access for modifying criteria is limited to managers according to levels of administrative privilege. PAT affords flexibility for modifying criteria for particular "focus areas" so as to enable standardization of criteria among similar projects, thereby making it possible to improve assessments without need to rewrite computer code or to rehire experts, and thereby further reducing the cost of maintaining and upgrading computer code. Information in the PAT database and results of PAT analyses can be incorporated into a variety of ready-made or customizable tabular or graphical displays.

Barth, Tim↗