“Thermal discomfort prediction with sparse residential thermostat dataset”
“Thermal discomfort prediction with sparse residential thermostat dataset”
Zeifman, Michael↗
Engineering topics
Zeifman, Michael
Publications and source records attributed to Zeifman, Michael.
System and method for characterization of air leakage in building using data from communicating thermostats and/or interval meters
Systems and methods for characterization of retrofit opportunities are described. Some embodiments are directed to methods for determining the air leakage rate of a building, and accordingly, for determining suitability of sealing of air leaks to improve the energy efficiency of a building. The methods may comprise computing, using at least one computing device disposed remote from a building and based at least in part on heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) runtime data associated with the building, one or more thermal characteristics of the building. The HVAC runtime data may be computed based on data received from a thermostat or a meter, such as an electric or a gas meter. To isolate the impact of air leakage, subsets of the HVAC runtime data at time intervals selected to have substantially the same conditions, but different wind speeds, may be computed.
Zeifman, Michael↗
Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities
Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities
This report, Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities , explores ways to automatically identify residential homes with enclosure retrofit opportunities; estimate prospective savings; and perform evaluation, measurement, and verification using interval data from communicating thermostats.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
System and method for characterization of retrofit opportunities in building using data from interval meters
Systems and methods for characterization of retrofit opportunities are described. The methods may comprise computing, using at least one computing device disposed remote from a building and based at least in part on heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) runtime data associated with the building, one or more thermal characteristics of the building. In some embodiments, a model-predicted indoor temperature may be fitted against thermal data measured by a thermostat at the building. The thermal characteristic of the building may comprise a thermal insulation, an air leakage rate and/or an HVAC efficiency. The method may be used to determine, using the at least one computing device, suitability of the building for a retrofit opportunity to improve energy efficiency of the building. Determining the suitability may comprise evaluating the one or more thermal characteristics. The HVAC runtime data may be computed based on data received from a thermostat or a meter, such as an electric or a gas meter.
Zeifman, Michael↗
System and method for characterization of retrofit opportunities in building using data from communicating thermostats
Systems and methods for characterization of retrofit opportunities are described. The methods may comprise computing, using at least one computing device disposed remote from a building and based at least in part on heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) runtime data associated with the building, one or more thermal characteristics of the building. In some embodiments, a model-predicted indoor temperature may be fitted against thermal data measured by a thermostat at the building. The thermal characteristic of the building may comprise a thermal insulation, an air leakage rate and/or an HVAC efficiency. The method may be used to determine, using the at least one computing device, suitability of the building for a retrofit opportunity to improve energy efficiency of the building. Determining the suitability may comprise evaluating the one or more thermal characteristics. The HVAC runtime data may be computed based on data received from a thermostat or a meter, such as an electric or a gas meter.
Zeifman, Michael↗
SunDial – An Integrated SHINES System to Enable High-penetration Feeder-level PV
The Project Team of Fraunhofer USA, National Grid, and IPKeys developed and conducted a pilot deployment of the SunDial system, a virtual power plant platform that enables high-penetrations of solar PV to be integrated into the distribution grid. The pilot was conducted over a 15-month period from August 2018 through October 2019 on a National Grid distribution feeder in Shirley, MA. A vendor-agnostic control platform (the “Global Scheduler”) optimally shaped the net load for a virtual portfolio of non-co-located DERs based on user-defined policy objectives. The goal of the SunDial project was to simplify and reduce the risk associated with the deployment of solar in high-penetration environments by: (1) Developing an open-source, vendor-agnostic dispatch platform that can be readily adapted to optimize control of DERs over a variety of use cases; (2) Developing auto-calibrating load and solar prediction methodologies that can be readily implemented and scaled to new deployments; (3) Developing a methodology to use demand-side management with traditional electrochemical energy storage to provide “load shaping” services in high solar penetration environments; (4) Using grid-scale storage to minimize short-term intermittency association with PV production; and (5) Deploying on the National Grid distribution system to gain experience on the potential for (and limits of) integrated storage with demand-side management.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗