Engineering topics
Zhao, Gang
Publications and source records attributed to Zhao, Gang.
Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios
Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.
A Catalog of Distance Determinations for the LAMOST DR8 K Giants in the Galactic Halo
We present a catalog of distances for 19,544 K giants drawn from Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) DR8. Most of them are located in the halo of the Milky Way up to ~120 kpc. There are 15% K giants without Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) photometry, for which we supplements with Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) photometry calibrated to SDSS photometric system. The possible contamination of the red clumps/horizontal branch are removed according to metallicities and colors before the distance determination. Combining the LAMOST spectroscopic metallicities with the SDSS/PS1 photometry, we estimate the absolute magnitudes in the SDSS r band, the distance moduli, and the corresponding uncertainties through an Bayesian approach devised by Xue et al. for the Sloan Extension for Galactic understanding and exploration halo K giants. The typical distance precision is about 11%. The stars in the catalog lie in a region of 4–126 kpc from the Galactic center, of which with 6320 stars beyond 20 kpc and 273 stars beyond 50 kpc, forming the largest spectroscopic sample of distant tracers in the Milky Way halo so far.
Evaluating Enhanced Reservoir Evaporation Losses From CMIP6‐Based Future Projections in the Contiguous United States
Abstract Enhanced reservoir evaporation has become an emerging concern regarding water loss, especially when compounded with the ever‐increasing water demand. In this study, we evaluated the evaporation rates and losses for 678 major reservoirs (representing nearly 90% of total storage capacity) in the Contiguous United States over historical baseline (1980–2019), near‐term (2020–2039), and mid‐term (2040–2059) future periods. The evaporation rate was estimated using the Lake Evaporation Model (LEM), an advanced lake evaporation model that addresses both heat storage and fetch effects, driven by multi‐ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects 6 (CMIP6) projections under the SSP585 emission scenario. The results project that the evaporation loss may increase by 2.5 × 10 7 m 3 /yr through the research period (1980–2059). Among all regions, the Rio Grande is projected to have the largest increasing rate in the near‐term and mid‐term future, with values of 7.11% of 10.25%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, the most significant increase in the evaporation rate is projected during the fall. The evaporation is projected to increase faster than the streamflow over many of the regions in the southwestern US during the summer/fall, suggesting that the shortage of water will be further exacerbated. The climate models contribute the most to the variance, as compared to the other components related to the projection of evaporation losses (e.g., hydrological model, downscaling method, and historical meteorological data set). These findings demonstrate the need to consider accelerated water loss through open water evaporation in long‐term water resources planning across various spatiotemporal scales.
Investigating the vertical distribution of the disk as a function of radial action
As heating processes can broaden the distributions of radial actions and the vertical distributions of the Galactic disks, we investigate the vertical distribution of the Galactic disks as a function of radial action based on Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and Gaia data in order to deepen our understanding of the formation and heating history of the Galactic disks. The vertical distributions of the thin and thick Galactic disks defined in the chemical plane were fitted with a simple exponential function with a free parameter of scale height in different radial action ranges. Therefore, we were able to analyze the scale height as a function of radial action for different disk populations. We find that the distributions of radial action for both the thin and thick disks can be approximately described by pseudo-isothermal distributions, which give a statistical measurement for the temperature of the disk as indicated by the mean radial action of the star sample. Estimations of the scale heights in different radial action ranges for these pseudo-isothermal distributions of the disks seem to show fixed relationships between radial action J R and scale height h. We describe these relationships with a two-parameter function of h = √(J R /a)+b, where a and b are free parameters. When testing with a three-parameter function of h = α √(J R /a)+b, we find that this two-parameter function describes the thin disk well, but we note the function should be used with care for the thick disk. When comparing the best-fit relationships between the inner and outer disk for both of the thin and thick disks, we find that the relationships are nearly the same for the thin disks but are different for the thick disks. The inner thick disk shows a nearly flattened relationship, while the outer thick disk presents a gradually increasing relationship. This work highlights an alternative way to unveil the heating history of the disks by investigating the relationship between scale height and radial action, as these relationships encode the formation and heating history of the Galactic disks.
Existence of tidal tails for the globular cluster NGC 5824
Context: Several dynamically cold streams have been associated with certain globular clusters (GCs) based on orbital energies and angular momenta. Some of these streams are surprisingly far apart from their progenitors and one such pair is Triangulum and NGC 5824. Triangulum can be considered as a piece of the leading tail of NGC 5824 since the cluster’s future orbit matches well with the stream’s track. The existence of the leading tail of NGC 5824 is the motivation behind the search for its trailing tail. Aims: Our goal is to confirm the connection between Triangulum and NGC 5824. We also search for the trailing tail of the cluster. Methods: The selection of member stars of Triangulum is made through various cuts in metallicity, proper motions (PMs), radial velocity and a color–magnitude diagram (CMD). The selected members are compared in phase space to a mock stream that models the disruption of NGC 5824. We then try to detect the trailing tail of the cluster based on a modified matched-filter technique. Stars are assigned weights using their color differences from the cluster’s locus in the CMD. These weights are further scaled, based on the stars’ departures from expected PMs of the model stream. Results: A total of 26 member stars for Triangulum are obtained, 16 of which are newly identified. These members are consistent with the mock stream in the phase space, and their metalicity and position on the CMD are in good agreement with NGC 5824. By applying the matched filter, a tenuous trailing tail of the cluster is detected, spanning ~50° long on sky. The signature matches well with the mock stream’s trajectory. Conclusions: Our results support that the Triangulum stream acts as a part of the leading tail for NGC 5824. On the trailing side, we detected a 50° tail extending from the cluster. The existence of both leading and trailing tails for the GC NGC 5824 is verified.
The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower
Understanding the future changes in projected water supplies is a vital objective for federal hydropower facilities tasked with providing low-cost, reliable electricity across a large regional footprint that encompasses a growing customer base, alternative market structures for marketing the electricity, and a more diverse generation asset mix than was historically present when a majority of federal hydropower facilities were built. This study, The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower, directed by Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (SWA), is the third quinquennial report on evaluating the effects of climate change on hydroelectric energy generated from 132 US federal hydropower plants marketed by four US Department of Energy (DOE) Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs). The technical assessment is conducted by DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University under the guidance of DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office. This study is the result of extensive consultation with the four federal PMAs (Bonneville Power Administration [BPA], Western Area Power Administration [WAPA], Southwestern Power Administration [SWPA], and Southeastern Power Administration [SEPA]), as well as other agencies, including federal hydropower owners/operators (the US Army Corps of Engineers, US Bureau of Reclamation [Reclamation]), US Geological Survey, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). The main findings of this assessment, along with the PMA administrators’ recommendations, will be included in a subsequent DOE report to Congress. The assessment method and the technical findings are described in this report.
The stellar parameters and elemental abundances from low-resolution spectra – I. 1.2 million giants from LAMOST DR8
As a typical data-driven method, deep learning becomes a natural choice for analysing astronomical data. In this study, we built a deep convolutional neural network (NN) to estimate basic stellar parameters $T\rm {_{eff}}$, log g , metallicity ([M/H] and [Fe/H]) and [α/M] along with nine individual elemental abundances ([C/Fe], [N/Fe], [O/Fe], [Mg/Fe], [Al/Fe], [Si/Fe], [Ca/Fe], [Mn/Fe], and [Ni/Fe]). The NN is trained using common stars between the APOGEE survey and the LAMOST survey. We used low-resolution spectra from LAMOST survey as input, and measurements from APOGEE as labels. For stellar spectra with the signal-to-noise ratio in g band larger than 10 in the test set, the mean absolute error (MAE) is 29 K for $T\rm {_{eff}}$, 0.07 dex for log g , 0.03 dex for both [Fe/H] and [M/H], and 0.02 dex for [α/M]. The MAE of most elements is between 0.02 and 0.04 dex. The trained NN was applied to 1210 145 giants, including sub-giants, from LAMOST DR8 within the range of stellar parameters 3500 K < $T\rm {_{eff}}$ < 5500 K, 0.0 dex < log g < 4.0 dex, −2.5 dex < [Fe/H] < 0.5 dex. The distribution of our results in the chemical spaces is highly consistent with APOGEE labels and stellar parameters show consistency with external high-resolution measurements from GALAH. The results in this study allow us to further studies based on LAMOST data and deepen our understanding of the accretion and evolution history of the Milky Way. The electronic version of the value added catalog is available at http://www.lamost.org/dr8/v1.1/doc/vac.
Evaporative water loss of 1.42 million global lakes
The evaporative loss from global lakes (natural and artificial) is a critical component of the terrestrial water and energy balance. However, the evaporation volume of these water bodies—from the spatial distribution to the long-term trend—is as of yet unknown. Here, using satellite observations and modeling tools, we quantified the evaporation volume from 1.42 million global lakes from 1985 to 2018. We find that the long-term average lake evaporation is 1500 ± 150 km 3 year -1 and it has increased at a rate of 3.12 km 3 year -1 . The trend attributions include an increasing evaporation rate (58%), decreasing lake ice coverage (23%), and increasing lake surface area (19%). While only accounting for 5% of the global lake storage capacity, artificial lakes (i.e., reservoirs) contribute 16% to the evaporation volume. Our results underline the importance of using evaporation volume, rather than evaporation rate, as the primary index for assessing climatic impacts on lake systems.
The Milky Way Revealed by Variable Stars. I. Sample Selection of RR Lyrae Stars and Evidence for Merger History
In order to study the Milky Way, RR Lyrae (RRL) variable stars identified by Gaia, ASAS-SN, and ZTF sky survey projects have been analyzed as tracers in this work. Photometric and spectroscopic information of 3417 RRLs including proper motions, radial velocity, and metallcity are obtained from observational data of Gaia, LAMOST, GALAH, APOGEE, and RAVE. Precise distances of RRLs with typical uncertainties less than 3% are derived by using a recent comprehensive period–luminosity–metallicity relation. Our results from kinematical and chemical analysis provide important clues for the assembly history of the Milky Way, especially for the Gaia–Sausage ancient merger. The kinematical and chemical trends found in this work are consistent with those of recent simulations that indicated that the Gaia–Sausage merger had a dual origin in the Galactic thick disk and halo. As recent similar works have found, the halo RRL sample in this work contains a subset of radially biased orbits besides a more isotropic component. This higher orbital anisotropy component amounts to β ≃ 0.8, and it contributes between 42% and 83% of the halo RRLs at 4 < R( kpc) < 20.
Contribution of Gaia Sausage to the Galactic Stellar Halo Revealed by K Giants and Blue Horizontal Branch Stars from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and Gaia
We explore the contribution of the Gaia Sausage to the stellar halo of the Milky Way by making use of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and applying it to halo star samples of Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope K giants, Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration K giants, and Sloan Digital Sky Survey blue horizontal branch stars. The GMM divides the stellar halo into two parts, of which one represents a more metal-rich and highly radially biased component associated with an ancient, head-on collision referred to as the Gaia Sausage, and the other one is a more metal-poor and isotropic halo. A symmetric bimodal Gaussian is used to describe the distribution of spherical velocity of the Gaia Sausage, and we find that the mean absolute radial velocity of the two lobes decreases with the Galactocentric radius. We find that the Gaia Sausage contributes about 41%–74% of the inner (Galactocentric radius r gc < 30 kpc) stellar halo. The fraction of stars of the Gaia Sausage starts to decline beyond r gc ~ 25–30 kpc, and the outer halo is found to be significantly less influenced by the Gaia Sausage than the inner halo. After the removal of halo substructures found by integrals of motion, the contribution of the Gaia Sausage falls slightly within r gc ~ 25 kpc but is still as high as 30%–63%. Finally, we select several possible Sausage-related substructures consisting of stars on highly eccentric orbits. The GMM/Sausage component agrees well with the selected substructure stars in their chemodynamical properties, which increases our confidence in the reliability of the GMM fits.
Tracing the Origin of Moving Groups. III. Detecting Moving Groups in LAMOST DR7
We revisit the moving groups (MGs) in the solar neighborhood with a sample of 91,969 nearby stars constructed from LAMOST DR7. Using the wavelet technique and Monte Carlo simulations, five MGs together with a new candidate located at $V$ ≃ -130 KM s -1 are detected simultaneously in $V$ - $\sqrt{U^2 + 2V^2}$ space. Taking into account the other known MGs, we conclude that MGs in the Galactic disk are spaced by approximately 15–25 km s -1 along $V$ velocity. Furthermore, the origin of detected MGs is analyzed through the distributions of [Fe/H]-[Mg/Fe] and ages. Our results support attributing the origin to the continuous resonant mechanisms probably induced by the bar or spiral arms of the Milky Way.
Evaluating precipitation, streamflow, and inundation forecasting skills during extreme weather events: A case study for an urban watershed
Integrated forecasting systems for precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation are of critical importance in mitigating the impacts of destructive floods caused by extreme weather events. However, the skills of streamflow and floodplain inundation forecasts derived from various Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) require a greater level of understanding. In this paper, a set of QPF developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) were used to drive a flood modeling system obtained utilizing offline coupling of a physics-based distributed hydrological model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM), and a hydrodynamic model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). This flood modeling system was used to produce forecasts of streamflow and floodplain inundation maps during three major flood events in the Brays Bayou Watershed (Houston, Texas, USA) for a range of QPF durations (6–72 h). Then, to investigate the effects of increasing QPF durations on the forecasts, the forecasting skills of precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation were quantified. The results show that: 1) QPF skills for more intense and sustained events such as hurricanes and tropical storms are higher than for shorter, less intense events; 2) while QPF and streamflow forecasting skills decrease as QPF durations increase, inundation forecasts under longer QPF durations (24 or 72 h) show higher skills; 3) extending the maximum QPF duration in operational hydrologic modeling from 24 h (under normal circumstances) to 72 h (for extreme events) may increase the skills of long lead time forecasts for large-scale events like Hurricane Harvey.
Extended Tidal Tails of IC 4756 Detected by Gaia EDR3
We report the discovery of emerged tidal tails around open cluster IC 4756 (~1 Gyr) based on 644 members identified from Gaia EDR3. Three-dimensional spatial positions and two-dimensional tangential velocities (x,y,z,κ·μ{sub α}*/ϖ,κ·μ{sub δ}/ϖ) are utilized to determine the comoving member candidates of IC 4756. Using a Bayesian method, we correct the distance for each cluster member. Two tidal tails extend up to 180 pc and display an S shape in the X'Y' space (Cartesian coordinates focused on cluster center). A clean sequence of our members in the color–absolute–magnitude diagram indicates the coeval population and matches perfectly with the PARSEC isochrone with age from Bossini et al. Mass segregation is detected in this cluster as well. Finally, we derive the tidal radius and core radius of IC 4756 about 12.13 pc and 4.33 ± 0.75 pc, respectively.
The implications of future climate change on the blue water footprint of hydropower in the contiguous US
As the largest renewable energy source, hydropower is essential to the sustainability of the global energy market. However, a considerable amount of water can be lost in the form of evaporation from the associated multipurpose reservoirs, and hence enlarge the blue water footprint (BWF) of hydropower in a warming climate. To facilitate the sustainable management of both water and energy resources under the impact of climate change in the contiguous United States (CONUS), the BWF values of 143 major multipurpose reservoirs were evaluated during the historical period (1985–2014) and two future periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099). The historical reservoir evaporation loss was calculated using the Landsat-based reservoir surface area and a new evaporation rate algorithm that considers the heat storage effect. Future projections of runoff availability, hydropower generation, and reservoir evaporation were estimated based on the downscaled climate model ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It was found that the BWF for the CONUS is highly spatially heterogeneous, with an average value of 26.2 m 3 /MWh in the historical period. In the future, the BWF values are projected to increase under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. This is especially noticeable under RCP 8.5, which has an average BWF value of 30.2 m 3 /MWh for 2070–2099 (increasing by 15.3% from 26.2 m 3 /MWh). The uncertainty ranges increase even more, from 3.4 m 3 /MWh during 2020–2049 to 5.7 m 3 /MWh during 2070–2099. These findings can benefit water and energy resources management in identifying suitable environmental, economic, operational, and investment strategies for multipurpose reservoirs in a changing environment.
Diagnosing Open Cluster Stock 2: Member Candidates and Mass Distribution with Gaia DR2 and LAMOST
We identify 1325 member candidates of the open cluster (OC) Stock 2 using data from Gaia DR2. We use the algorithms Clusterix 2.0 and HDBSCAN to select cluster candidates and further refine the final cluster membership by defining neighbors in 5D phase space (X {sub cp}, Y {sub cp}, Z{sub cp},κ⋅μ{sub α}{sup ∗}/ϖ, κ · μ {sub δ}/ϖ). Among these candidates, less than half have G, G {sub BP}, and G {sub RP} extinctions from Gaia. When Gaia extinctions are unavailable, we compute extiction using empirical formulas and E(B − V) = 0.350. We analyze the spatial distribution and mass profile of Stock 2. Our results reveal Stock 2 is still a bound OC and we find evidence of mass segregation. By comparing initial mass functions, the present-day mass function indicates that Stock 2 is a massive stellar cluster with a mass of 4000 M {sub ⊙}. The core radius and tidal radius, calculated via the radial density profile and total mass, are 3.97 pc and 22.65 pc, respectively. Common stars between our selected member candidates and the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope DR7 medium-resolution catalog give a metalliclity of [Fe/H] = −0.040 ± 0.147.
Impacts of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event, and cyclone tracks on extreme floods at Houston reservoirs during Hurricane Harvey
The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event (ARE), and varying cyclone tracks on the streamflow—and thus the subsequent reservoir status—during the floods caused by Hurricane Harvey in August-September 2017. Through a hydrological modeling approach, we examined how these factors influenced the inflows, peak pool elevations and outflows of the two most important detention reservoirs in the Houston region, the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. A high-resolution rainfall reanalysis dataset for extreme storm events, along with a suite of synthetic rainfall values from a variety of storm tracks, were adopted to represent both the truth and the maximum possible rainfall during the Hurricane Harvey period. Results showed the following: Urbanization only led to slight increases in peak inflows, not necessarily leading to an increase in peak pool elevations. ARE contributed to the peak inflow and pool elevation slightly. In contrast, if the cyclone had followed the most adverse track consistent with earlier forecasts (all else being equal), the total volumetric flow into the two reservoirs could have been significantly larger (37.00% and 48.70% respectively), thus increasing the peak pool elevations by 1.06 and 1.37 meters respectively. These results suggest that large uncertainties exist for flood management at a watershed scale during hurricanes, because of the uncertainties with regard to the cyclone track. This is true even if storm-relative precipitation rates could be predicted perfectly.
Estimating Atmospheric Parameters of DA White Dwarf Stars with Deep Learning
The determination of atmospheric parameters of white dwarf stars (WDs) is crucial for researches on them. Traditional methodology is to fit the model spectra to observed absorption lines and report the parameters with the lowest χ 2 error, which strongly relies on theoretical models that are not always publicly accessible. In this work, we construct a deep learning network to model-independently estimate T eff and log g of DA stars (DAs), corresponding to WDs with hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. The network is directly trained and tested on the normalized flux pixels of full optical wavelength range of DAs spectroscopically confirmed in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Experiments in test yield that the rms error for T eff and log g approaches 900 K and 0.1 dex, respectively. This technique is applicable for those DAs with T eff from 5000 to 40,000 K and log g from 7.0 to 9.0 dex. Furthermore, the applicability of this method is verified for the spectra with degraded resolution of ~200. So it is also practical for the analysis of DAs that will be detected by the Chinese Space Station Telescope.