Sensitivity of future regional and global energy markets and macroeconomic activity to a hypothetical global energy market disruption
Not Available
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Engineering topics
Zhao, Xin
Publications and source records attributed to Zhao, Xin.
Pathways for the US food processing sector under economy-wide net zero in a multisector dynamic framework
Not Available
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Core Model Proposal #399: Updating the SSP Database (v3.0) (Population, GDP, and Labor Force) and Labor Productivity (KLEM)
This Core Model Proposal (CMP) updates the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) database to a recent version (v3.0.1; released in 2024) within GCAM. Currently, GCAM relies on socioeconomic drivers, including population, GDP, and labor force projections, from the original SSP database version released in 2013. These projections, provided by independent socioeconomic dynamic models (e.g., multi-dimensional demographic models and macroeconomic models of convergence growth), may need regular updates when (1) near-term observations become available and (2) there are updates and advancements in the socioeconomic modeling. Timely updates of socioeconomic drivers in global economic equilibrium and multisector dynamic modeling will ensure (1) alignment of historical years and near-term projections with observations, enhancing base year calibrations, including calibration parameters and labor productivity, and (2) improvement of long-term projections with updated socioeconomic drivers, which set the scale of the economy. This CMP updates the SSP data (from v2013 to v2024) and also fixes/reconciles historical GDP data sources in GCAM. We investigate the impact of these updates on GCAM projections.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors
Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change
Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (-7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (-0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Core Model Proposal #377: Breaking out food processing sector in GCAM
Purpose: This Core Model Proposal (CMP) expands the representation of detailed industry (CMP-326) in GCAM by separating the food processing sector from the aggregate “other industry sector”. Historical energy use is calibrated to IEA data for food processing, with some infilling for regions with limited IEA data. Food processing is linked to the GCAM food demand module, setting the energy demand for food processing in future periods based on food demand. While the direct price feedback is currently muted and the linkage is represented at the aggregated regional level, this CMP establishes the groundwork for a more detailed connection between the agrifood sectors and energy sectors in future work.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Core Model Proposal 382: Representing agricultural and food storage
Purpose: This Core Model Proposal develops data and methods to represent agricultural storage and the inter-period stockholding behavior for agricultural and food products in global economic and multisector dynamic modeling. In particular, the proposal aims to (1) restructure and rebalance the supply-utilization accounts to separate stock variations, opening stock, closing stock, and loss associated with stockholding behavior, (2) incorporate agricultural stockholding behavior as a technology of regional consumers who allocate regional supply to current consumption or future consumption (storage carried over to the next period), and (3) explore the sensitivity of the key factors introduced that determine stockholder’s responses.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Updates to the ATLAS Data Carousel Project
The High Luminosity upgrade to the LHC (HL-LHC) is expected to deliver scientific data at the multi-exabyte scale. In order to address this unprecedented data storage challenge, the ATLAS experiment launched the Data Carousel project in 2018. Data Carousel is a tape-driven workflow whereby bulk production campaigns with input data resident on tape are executed by staging and promptly processing a sliding window to disk buffer such that only a small fraction of inputs are pinned on disk at any one time. Data Carousel is now in production for ATLAS in Run3. In this paper, we provide updates on recent Data Carousel R&D projects, including data-on-demand and tape smart writing. Data-on-demand removes from disk data that has not been accessed for a predefined period, when users request them, they will be either staged from tape or recreated by following the original production steps. Tape smart writing employs intelligent algorithms for file placement on tape in order to retrieve data back more efficiently, which is our long term strategy to achieve optimal tape usage in Data Carousel.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Distributed Machine Learning Workflow with PanDA and iDDS in LHC ATLAS
Machine Learning (ML) has become one of the important tools for High Energy Physics analysis. As the size of the dataset increases at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and at the same time the search spaces become bigger and bigger in order to exploit the physics potentials, more and more computing resources are required for processing these ML tasks. In addition, complex advanced ML workflows are developed in which one task may depend on the results of previous tasks. How to make use of vast distributed CPUs/GPUs in WLCG for these big complex ML tasks has become a popular research area. In this paper, we present our efforts enabling the execution of distributed ML workflows on the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system and intelligent Data Delivery Service (iDDS). First, we describe how PanDA and iDDS deal with large-scale ML workflows, including the implementation to process workloads on diverse and geographically distributed computing resources. Next, we report real-world use cases, such as HyperParameter Optimization, Monte Carlo Toy confidence limits calculation, and Active Learning. Finally, we conclude with future plans.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Utilizing Distributed Heterogeneous Computing with PanDA in ATLAS
In recent years, advanced and complex analysis workflows have gained increasing importance in the ATLAS experiment at CERN, one of the large scientific experiments at LHC. Support for such workflows has allowed users to exploit remote computing resources and service providers distributed worldwide, overcoming limitations on local resources and services. The spectrum of computing options keeps increasing across the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG), volunteer computing, high-performance computing, commercial clouds, and emerging service levels like Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), Container-as-a-Service (CaaS) and Function-as-a-Service (FaaS), each one providing new advantages and constraints. Users can significantly benefit from these providers, but at the same time, it is cumbersome to deal with multiple providers, even in a single analysis workflow with fine-grained requirements coming from their applications’ nature and characteristics. In this paper, we will first highlight issues in geographically-distributed heterogeneous computing, such as the insulation of users from the complexities of dealing with remote providers, smart workload routing, complex resource provisioning, seamless execution of advanced workflows, workflow description, pseudointeractive analysis, and integration of PaaS, CaaS, and FaaS providers. We will also outline solutions developed in ATLAS with the Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system and future challenges for LHC Run4.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
gcamfaostat: An R package to prepare, process, and synthesize FAOSTAT data for global agroeconomic and multisector dynamic modeling
The gcamfaostat R package is designed for the preparation, processing, and synthesis of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Statistics (FAOSTAT) agroeconomic data. The primary purpose is to facilitate FAOSTAT data use in global economic and multisector dynamic models while ensuring transparency, traceability, and reproducibility. Here, we provide an overview of the development of gcamfaostat (v1.0) and demonstrate its capabilities in generating and maintaining agroeconomic data required for the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Our initiative seeks to enhance the quality and accessibility of data for the global agroeconomic modeling community, with the aim of fostering more robust and harmonized outcomes in a collaborative, efficient, and open-source framework. One of the important features of the package is the possibility to construct the FAO Food Balance Sheets at the disaggregated commodity level (with over 500 commodities), which provides a comprehensive and detailed data input for a variety of analytical and modeling applications. The processed data and visualizations offered by gcamfaostat can also be valuable to a broader audience interested in gaining insights into the intricacies of global agriculture.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures
Land-based carbon removals, specifically afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), vary widely in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Because underlying drivers are difficult to assess, we use a well-known integrated assessment model, GCAM, to demonstrate that land-based carbon removals are sensitive to the strength and scope of land-based mitigation policies. We find that while cumulative afforestation/reforestation and BECCS deployment are inversely related, they are both typically part of cost-effective mitigation pathways, with forestry options deployed earlier. While the CO 2 removal intensity (removal per unit land) of BECCS is typically higher than afforestation/reforestation over long time horizons, the BECCS removal intensity is sensitive to feedstock and technology choices whereas the afforestation/reforestation removal intensity is sensitive to land policy choices. Finally, we find a generally positive relationship between agricultural prices and removal effectiveness of land-based mitigation, suggesting that some trade-offs may be difficult to avoid.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
JGCRI/gcamfaostat
An R package to prepare, process, and synthesize FAOSTAT data for global agroeconomic and multisector dynamic modeling
Zhao, Xin↗
PanDA: Production and Distributed Analysis System
The Production and Distributed Analysis (PanDA) system is a data-driven workload management system engineered to operate at the LHC data processing scale. The PanDA system provides a solution for scientific experiments to fully leverage their distributed heterogeneous resources, showcasing scalability, usability, flexibility, and robustness. The system has successfully proven itself through nearly two decades of steady operation in the ATLAS experiment, addressing the intricate requirements such as diverse resources distributed worldwide at about 200 sites, thousands of scientists analyzing the data remotely, the volume of processed data beyond the exabyte scale, dozens of scientific applications to support, and data processing over several billion hours of computing usage per year. PanDA’s flexibility and scalability make it suitable for the High Energy Physics community and wider science domains at the Exascale. Beyond High Energy Physics, PanDA’s relevance extends to other big data sciences, as evidenced by its adoption in the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the sPHENIX experiment. As the significance of advanced workflows continues to grow, PanDA has transformed into a comprehensive ecosystem, effectively tackling challenges associated with emerging workflows and evolving computing technologies. The paper discusses PanDA’s prominent role in the scientific landscape, detailing its architecture, functionality, deployment strategies, project management approaches, results, and evolution into an ecosystem.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Metal–Organic Framework as a New Type of Magnetothermally‐Triggered On‐Demand Release Carrier
The development of external stimuli‐controlled payload systems has been sought after with increasing interest toward magnetothermally‐triggered drug release (MTDR) carriers due to their non‐invasive features. However, current MTDR carriers present several limitations, such as poor heating efficiency caused by the aggregation of iron oxide nanoparticles (IONPs) or the presence of antiferromagnetic phases which affect their efficiency. Herein, a novel MTDR carrier is developed using a controlled encapsulation method that fully fixes and confines IONPs of various sizes within the metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). This novel carrier preserves the MOF's morphology, porosity, and IONP segregation, while enhances heating efficiency through the oxidation of antiferromagnetic phases in IONPs during encapsulation. It also features a magnetothermally‐responsive nanobrush that is stimulated by an alternating magnetic field to enable on‐demand drug release. The novel carrier shows improved heating, which has potential applications as contrast agents and for combined chemo and magnetic hyperthermia therapy. It holds a great promise for magneto‐thermally modulated drug dosing at tumor sites, making it an exciting avenue for cancer treatment.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Core Model Proposal #338: Regional Forest Markets and Crop Trade Updates
The main purpose of this proposal is to update the forest (i.e., Roundwood) trade modeling in GCAM from HOV (Heckscher-Ohlin Vanek) based fully integrated world market to segmented regional markets using the logit-based Armington approach. We also improve agricultural trade-related data, update trade (Armington) parameters based on literature information, and allow elastic forest demand responses. This CMP is an extension of previous GCAM agricultural trade CMPs (289 & 312).
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro–Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade–Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean
The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global-scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land-based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC’s economies through mid-century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land-water-climate systems across the region’s diverse sub-regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non-linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities pose significant trade-offs that require careful multi-sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land-based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land-use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub-regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling
Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗