Engineering topics

Zheng, Bo

Publications and source records attributed to Zheng, Bo.

8 records

DOE OSTI2024

Genomes of multicellular algal sisters to land plants illuminate signaling network evolution

Zygnematophyceae are the algal sisters of land plants. Here we sequenced four genomes of filamentous Zygnematophyceae, including chromosome-scale assemblies for three strains of Zygnema circumcarinatum . We inferred traits in the ancestor of Zygnematophyceae and land plants that might have ushered in the conquest of land by plants: expanded genes for signaling cascades, environmental response, and multicellular growth. Zygnematophyceae and land plants share all the major enzymes for cell wall synthesis and remodifications, and gene gains shaped this toolkit. Co-expression network analyses uncover gene cohorts that unite environmental signaling with multicellular developmental programs. Our data shed light on a molecular chassis that balances environmental response and growth modulation across more than 600 million years of streptophyte evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

Abstract The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH 4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH 4 emissions and CH 4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top‐down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model‐based) and bottom‐up (BU) (inventory‐ and process model‐based) CH 4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH 4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH 4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH 4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios

The latest scenarios for the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide opportunities to explore future climate and air pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features. However, to what extent inadequate consideration of region-specific policies in the CMIP6 scenarios would affect regional air quality projections is still not clear. Here, we simulated China’s future PM2.5 concentrations and compositions with local policy-based scenarios and the original CMIP6 datasets, for the first time estimating future air quality differences induced by the lack of local pollution control policies in the CMIP6 scenarios. We found that the CMIP6-driven projections overestimate major chemical aerosols by 10% – 70% in 2015 and fail to capture the rapid PM2.5 concentration decline during 2015–2019. Near-term differences further lead to 43% – 49% (5 – 9 µg/m3) PM2.5 overpredictions in 2050 in CMIP6 scenarios compared with policy-based mitigation scenarios. Our study demonstrates the indispensable influences of local policies on regional analyses and suggests that the research community should incorporate more region-specific information in future scenario designs.

Cheng, Jing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pathways of China's PM 2.5 air quality 2015–2060 in the context of carbon neutrality

Clean air policies in China have substantially reduced particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) air pollution in recent years, primarily by curbing end-of-pipe emissions. However, reaching the level of the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines may instead depend upon the air quality co-benefits of ambitious climate action. Here, we assess pathways of Chinese PM 2.5 air quality from 2015 to 2060 under a combination of scenarios that link global and Chinese climate mitigation pathways (i.e. global 2°C- and 1.5°C-pathways, National Determined Contributions (NDC) pledges and carbon neutrality goals) to local clean air policies. We find that China can achieve both its near-term climate goals (peak emissions) and PM 2.5 air quality annual standard (35 μg/m3) by 2030 by fulfilling its NDC pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, the benefits of end-of-pipe control reductions are mostly exhausted by 2030, and reducing PM 2.5 exposure of the majority of the Chinese population to below 10 μg/m 3 by 2060 will likely require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5°C-pathways. Our results thus highlight that China's carbon neutrality goals will play a critical role in reducing air pollution exposure to the level of the WHO guidelines and protecting public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A global anthropogenic emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants from sector- and fuel-specific sources (1970–2017): an application of the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

Global anthropogenic emission inventories remain vital for understanding the sources of atmospheric pollution and the associated impacts on the environment, human health, and society. Rapid changes in today's society require that these inventories provide contemporary estimates of multiple atmospheric pollutants with both source sector and fuel type information to understand and effectively mitigate future impacts. To fill this need, we have updated the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) (Hoesly et al., 2019) to develop a new global emission inventory, CEDSGBD-MAPS. This inventory includes emissions of seven key atmospheric pollutants (NOx; CO; SO2; NH3; non-methane volatile organic compounds, NMVOCs; black carbon, BC; organic carbon, OC) over the time period from 1970–2017 and reports annual country-total emissions as a function of 11 anthropogenic sectors (agriculture; energy generation; industrial processes; on-road and non-road transportation; separate residential, commercial, and other sectors (RCO); waste; solvent use; and international shipping) and four fuel categories (total coal, solid biofuel, the sum of liquid-fuel and natural-gas combustion, and remaining process-level emissions). The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory additionally includes monthly global gridded (0.5°?×?0.5°) emission fluxes for each compound, sector, and fuel type to facilitate their use in earth system models. CEDSGBD-MAPS utilizes updated activity data, updates to the core CEDS default scaling procedure, and modifications to the final procedures for emissions gridding and aggregation. Relative to the previous CEDS inventory (Hoesly et al., 2018), these updates extend the emission estimates from 2014 to 2017 and improve the overall agreement between CEDS and two widely used global bottom-up emission inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory provides the most contemporary global emission estimates to date for these key atmospheric pollutants and is the first to provide global estimates for these species as a function of multiple fuel types and source sectors. Dominant sources of global NOx and SO2 emissions in 2017 include the combustion of oil, gas, and coal in the energy and industry sectors as well as on-road transportation and international shipping for NOx. Dominant sources of global CO emissions in 2017 include on-road transportation and residential biofuel combustion. Dominant global sources of carbonaceous aerosol in 2017 include residential biofuel combustion, on-road transportation (BC only), and emissions from the waste sector. Global emissions of NOx, SO2, CO, BC, and OC all peak in 2012 or earlier, with more recent emission reductions driven by large changes in emissions from China, North America, and Europe. In contrast, global emissions of NH3 and NMVOCs continuously increase between 1970 and 2017, with agriculture as a major source of global NH3 emissions and solvent use, energy, residential, and the on-road transport sectors as major sources of global NMVOCs. Due to similar development methods and underlying datasets, the CEDSGBD-MAPS emissions are expected to have consistent sources of uncertainty as other bottom-up inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS source code is publicly available online through GitHub: https://github.com/emcduffie/CEDS/tree/CEDS_GBD-MAPS (last access: 1 December 2020). The CEDSGBD-MAPS emission inventory dataset (both annual country-total and monthly global gridded files) is publicly available under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3754964 (McDuffie et al., 2020c).

Mcduffie, Erin↗

DOE OSTI2020

Natural gas shortages during the “coal-to-gas” transition in China have caused a large redistribution of air pollution in winter 2017

The Chinese “coal-to-gas” and “coal-to-electricity” strategies aim at reducing dispersed coal consumption and related air pollution by promoting the use of clean and low-carbon fuels in northern China. Here, we show that on top of meteorological influences, the effective emission mitigation measures achieved an average decrease of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations of ~14% in Beijing and surrounding areas (the “2+26” pilot cities) in winter 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, where the dispersed coal control measures contributed ~60% of the total PM 2.5 reductions. However, the localized air quality improvement was accompanied by a contemporaneous~15% upsurge of PM 2.5 concentrations over large areas in southern China. We find that the pollution transfer that resulted from a shift in emissions was of a high likelihood caused by a natural gas shortage in the south due to the coal-to-gas transition in the north. The overall shortage of natural gas greatly jeopardized the air quality benefits of the coal-to-gas strategy in winter 2017 and reflects structural challenges and potential threats in China’s clean-energy transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH 4 are continuing to increase, making CH 4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Assessing the relative importance of CH 4 in comparison to CO 2 is complicated by its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and atmospheric growth rate variations over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗