Engineering topics

Zolan, Alexander J.

Publications and source records attributed to Zolan, Alexander J..

5 records

DOE OSTI2024

Modern deep neural networks for Direct Normal Irradiance forecasting: A classification approach

The escalating energy demand and the adverse environmental impacts of fossil-fuel use necessitate a shift towards cleaner and renewable alternatives. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology emerges as a promising solution, offering a carbon-free alternative for power generation. The efficiency and profitability of CSP depend on the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) component of solar radiation; hence, accurate DNI forecasting can help optimize CSP plants’ operations and performance. The unpredictable nature of weather phenomena, particularly cloud cover, introduces uncertainty into DNI projections. Existing DNI forecasting models use meteorological factors, which are both challenging to estimate numerically over short prediction windows and expensive to model through data at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. This research addresses the challenge by presenting a novel approach that formulates DNI prediction as a multi-class classification problem, departing from conventional regression-based methods. The primary objective of this classification framework is to identify optimal periods aligning with specific operational thresholds for CSP plants, contributing to enhanced dispatch optimization strategies. We model the DNI classification problem using four advanced deep neural networks – rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks, 1D residual networks (ResNets), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and transformers – achieving accuracies up to 93.5% without requiring meteorological parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Real-time dispatch optimization for concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants present a promising path towards utility-scale renewable energy. The power tower, or central receiver, configuration can achieve higher operating temperatures than other forms of CSP, and, like all forms of CSP, naturally pairs with comparatively inexpensive thermal energy storage, which allows CSP plants to dispatch electricity according to market price incentives and outside the hours of solar resource availability. Currently, CSP plants commonly include a steam Rankine power cycle and several heat exchange components to generate high-pressure steam using stored thermal energy. The efficiency of the steam Rankine cycle depends on the temperature of the plant's operating fluid, and so is a main concern of plant operators. However, the variable nature of the solar resource and the conservatism with which the receiver is operated prevent perfect control over the receiver outlet temperature. Therefore, during periods of solar variability, collection occurs at lower-than-design temperature. To support operator decisions in a real-time setting, we develop a revenue-maximizing non-convex mixed-integer, quadradically-constrained program which determines a dispatch schedule with sub-hourly time fidelity and considers temperature-dependent power cycle efficiency. The exact nonlinear formulation proves intractable for real-time decision support. Here we present exact and inexact techniques to improve problem tractability that include a hybrid nonlinear and linear formulation. Our approach admits solutions within approximately 3% of optimality, on average, within a five-minute time limit, demonstrating its usability for decision support in a real-time setting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Demonstrating solarpilot ’s Python Application Programmable Interface Through Heliostat Optimal Aimpoint Strategy Use Case

solarpilot is a software package that generates solar field layouts and characterizes the optical performance of concentrating solar power (CSP) tower systems. solarpilot was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as a stand-alone desktop application but has also been incorporated into NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) in a simplified format. Prior means for user interaction with solarpilot have included the application’s graphical interface, the SAM routines with limited configurability, and through a built-in scripting language called “LK.” This article presents a new, full-featured, python-based application programmable interface (API) for solarpilot, which we hereafter refer to as CoPylot. CoPylot enables python users to perform detailed CSP tower analysis utilizing either the Hermite expansion technique (analytical) or the SolTrace ray-tracing engine. CoPylot’s enables CSP researchers to perform analysis that was previously not possible through solarpilot’s existing interfaces. This article discusses the capabilities of CoPylot and presents a use case wherein we populate a model that obtains optimal solar field aiming strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing Vehicle Fleet and Assignment for Concentrating Solar Power Plant Heliostat Washing

Concentrating solar power central-receiver plants use thousands of sun-tracking mirrors, i.e., heliostats, to reflect sunlight to a central receiver, which collects and uses the heat to generate electricity. Over time, soiling reduces the reflectivity of the heliostats and, therefore, the efficiency of the system. Current industry practice sends vehicles to wash heliostats in an ad hoc fashion. We present a mixed-integer nonlinear program that determines wash vehicle fleet size, mix, and assignment of wash crews to heliostats to minimize the sum of (i) the revenues lost due to heliostat soiling, (ii) the costs of hiring wash crews and operating the vehicles, and (iii) the costs of purchasing wash vehicles. We establish conditions for convexity of the objective function, and then propose a decomposition method that enables near-optimal solutions to the wash vehicle fleet sizing and assignment problem on the order of a couple of minutes. Furthermore, these solutions yield hundreds of thousands of dollars in savings per year over current industry practices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Decomposing Loosely Coupled Mixed-Integer Programs for Optimal Microgrid Design

Microgrids are frequently employed in remote regions, in part because access to a larger electric grid is impossible, difficult, or compromises reliability and independence. Although small microgrids often employ spot generation, in which a diesel generator is attached directly to a load, microgrids that combine these individual loads and augment generators with photovoltaic cells and batteries as a distributed energy system are emerging as a safer, less costly alternative. In this work, we present a model that seeks the minimum-cost microgrid design and ideal dispatched power to support a small remote site for one year with hourly fidelity under a detailed battery model; this mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) is intractable with commercial solvers but loosely coupled with respect to time. A mixed-integer linear program (MIP) approximates the model, and a partitioning scheme linearizes the bilinear terms. We introduce a novel policy for loosely coupled MIPs in which the system reverts to equivalent conditions at regular time intervals; this separates the problem into subproblems that we solve in parallel. We obtain solutions within 5% of optimality in at most six minutes across 14 MIP instances from the literature and solutions within 5% of optimality to the MINLP instances within 20 minutes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗