NASA NTRS · 19750029609
Predicting the probability that earth-orbiting spacecraft will collide with man-made objects in space
Abstract
A probabilistic approach to the problem of collisions is made possible by basing a model of the relevant characteristics of the total population on the known properties of a fraction of the total. A method of determining collision probability for objects in any two different but potentially intersecting orbits is derived. Collision probabilities for earth-orbital missions are investigated parametrically as a function of orbital characteristics and a hypothetical projection of the results to future orbital missions is discussed.
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Brooks, D. R., Bess, T. D., Gibson, G. G.. 1974-09-01. Predicting the probability that earth-orbiting spacecraft will collide with man-made objects in space. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19750029609
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