Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

Abstract

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.