Revised estimates for ozone reduction by shuttle operation

Abstract

Previous calculations by five different modeling groups of the effect of space shuttle operations on the ozone layer yielded an estimate of 0.2 percent ozone reduction for the Northern Hemisphere at 60 launches per year. Since these calculations were made, the accepted rate constant for the reaction between hydroperoxyl and nitric oxide to yield hydroxyl and nitrogen dioxide, HO2 + NO yields OH + NO2, was revised upward by more than an order of magnitude, with a resultant increase in the predicted ozone reduction for chlorofluoromethanes by a factor of approximately 2. New calculations of the shuttle effect were made with use of the new rate constant data, again by five different modeling groups. The new value of the shuttle effect on the ozone layer was found to be 0.25 percent. The increase resulting from the revised rate constant is considerably less for space shuttle operations than for chlorofluoromethane production, because the new rate constant also increases the calculated rate of downward transport of shuttle exhaust products out of the stratosphere.