An objective method for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity and motion using Nimbus-5 ESMR measurements and non-satellite derived descriptors

Abstract

An empirical analysis program, based on finding an optimal representation of the data was applied to 120 observations of 29 1973 and 1974 North Pacific tropical cyclones. Each observation consists of a field of Nimbus-5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer radiation measurements at 267 grid points covering and surrounding the tropical cyclone plus nine other non-satellite derived discriptors. Forecast algorithms to estimate storm intensity and motion at 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours after each observation were developed using an independent eigen screening analysis. These algorithms were based on best track data. Independent testing of these algorithms showed that the performance of most of these algorithms were better than persistence and the algorithms forecasting 24, 48, and 72 hour maximum wind speed were better than those made operationally by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for 1973 and 1974 that did not use best track data.