A global biogeocenotical biosphere simulation

Abstract

This model of the D. Forrester type, constructed in differential equations, predicts the food and mineral supply for the factors biosphere population, depending on two socio-economic factors, until about the year 2500. If contemporary rates of natural resources utilization are maintained and there is no management of the environment, food resources will begin to limit human population growth after 2200, and mineral resources will after 2300. A decrease in the biosphere pollution, increase in effective agricultural production, and discovery of new energy sources may forestall or completely avert the onset of a crisis situation. Conservation measures, according to the model, are to a considerable extent realizable only if carried out simultaneously in both areas.