Modeling

Abstract

A prediction of the future population of satellites, satellite fragments, and assorted spacecraft debris in Earth orbit can be reliably made only after three conditions are satisfied: (1) the size and spatial distributions of these Earth-orbiting objects are established at some present-day time; (2) the processes of orbital evolution, explosions, hypervelocity impact fragmentation, and atmospheric drag are understood; and (3) a reasonable traffic model for the future launch rate of Earth-orbiting objects is assumed. The theoretician will then take these three quantities as input data and will carry through the necessary mathematica and numerical analyses to project the present-day orbital population into the future.