Cyclogenesis

Abstract

In order to extend the conventional baroclinic instability concept, one has to picture the growth process as resulting from the superposition of two neutrally stable baroclinic waves, an upper and a lower one, each wave propagating along a near-discontinuity in the potential vorticity (PV) field. The PV discontinuity for the lower wave is given by the non-uniformity of the thermal field at the ground, while the discontinuity for the upper wave is given by the contrast, in the 400 to 200 mb range, between the high-PV polar stratosphere and the low-PV subtropical troposphere. The horizontal PV radients mentioned are approximately opposed to each other, causing the wo waves to travel in the opposite direction. As Hoskins et al. (1985) show convincingly, a phase lock between the upper and lower wave may occur, coupled with a tendency toward mutual amplification. The conceptual model just outlined is particularly attractive to synoptic meteorologists because it does not require the two waves to be of initially small amplitude and thus does not fly in the face of observational evidence. This model, by allowing a finite perturbation velocity and a considerable range of relative phase speeds at the time when the upper and lower wave reach the proper phase lag for amplification, may lead to growth rates larger than those predicted by linear theory. aba R.J.F.