Nuclear winter - Three-dimensional simulations including interactive transport, scavenging, and solar heating of smoke

Abstract

A reexamination is conducted of the 'nuclear winter' hypothesis with a three-dimensional global model modified to allow for localized injection of smoke, its transport by the simulated winds, its absorption of sunlight, and its removal by model-simulated precipitation. Smoke injected into the troposphere is driven upward by solar heating. The tropopause, initially above the smoke, reforms below the heat smoke layer and separates it from precipitation below. Although much smoke is scavenged while the thermal structure is being altered, the residence time of the remaining smoke is greatly increased. Particularly for July conditions, a longer-lasting 'nuclear winter' effect is observed than was found in earlier modeling studies in which normal tropospheric residence times were assumed. In January the smaller solar flux in the northern hemisphere allows faster removal of smoke than in July. Significant cooling of the northern hemisphere continents is predicted; its dependence on season and injected smoke mass is described.