Analysis/forecast experiments with a flow-dependent correlation function using FGGE data

Abstract

The use of a flow-dependent correlation function to improve the accuracy of an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme is examined. The development of the correlation function for the OI analysis scheme used for numerical weather prediction is described. The scheme uses a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans to model the pressure-wind error cross-correlation and it has the ability to use an error correlation function that is flow- and geographically-dependent. A series of four-day data assimilation experiments, conducted from January 5-9, 1979, were used to investigate the effect of the different features of the OI scheme (error correlation) on forecast skill for the barotropic lows and highs. The skill of the OI was compared with that of a successive correlation method (SCM) of analysis. It is observed that the largest difference in the correlation statistics occurred in barotropic and baroclinic lows and highs. The comparison reveals that the OI forecasts were more accurate than the SCM forecasts.