Comparative verification between GEM model and official aviation terminal forecasts

Abstract

The Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) model uses the local standard airways observation (SAO) to predict hour-by-hour the following elements: temperature, pressure, dew point depression, first and second cloud-layer height and amount, ceiling, total cloud amount, visibility, wind, and present weather conditions. GEM is superior to persistence at all projections for all elements in a large independent sample. A minute-by-minute GEM forecasting system utilizing the Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS) is under development.