Spacecraft technology trends - A view from the past

Abstract

Future spacecraft will be sent on missions to complete the exploration of the solar system, to return samples from celestial bodies, record the process of creation of stars, galaxies, and the universe itself, to provide a continuous record of earth processes, and to maintain vital space communications. A key ingredient to projecting the future is to comprehend the historic record and to understand the significance of trends. This paper focuses on spacecraft cost and life trends, as well as those of the major subsystems. Throughout the history of the 'space age' there has been significant progress in the performance of spacecraft and their subsystems. However, various aspects of spacecraft performance lag behind what is technically feasible by a considerable margin. In addition, examination of the historical trend implies that future spacecraft will likely continue to be relatively unique in their design features. This is in contrast to the technically realizable future attributes such as large space platforms, modularity, system autonomy and on-orbit repair and servicing.