Using geomagnetic indices to forecast the next sunspot maximum

Abstract

The Babcock (1961) 'solar dynamo' model and known interactions of the interplanetary magnetic field with the earth's magnetosophere are used to explain the relations found between geomagnetic indices at solar minimum and the sunspot number at the following solar maximum. The work of Kane (1987) is augmented by including recent smoothed aa and Ap indices. A smoothed maximum sunspot number of 163 + or - 40 to peak in October 1990 + or - 9 months for solar cycle 22 is predicted. This value is close to the Schatten and Sofia (1987) value of 170 + or - 25, predicted using more direct solar indicators.