Quantitative knowledge acquisition for expert systems

Abstract

A common problem in the design of expert systems is the definition of rules from data obtained in system operation or simulation. While it is relatively easy to collect data and to log the comments of human operators engaged in experiments, generalizing such information to a set of rules has not previously been a direct task. A statistical method is presented for generating rule bases from numerical data, motivated by an example based on aircraft navigation with multiple sensors. The specific objective is to design an expert system that selects a satisfactory suite of measurements from a dissimilar, redundant set, given an arbitrary navigation geometry and possible sensor failures. The systematic development is described of a Navigation Sensor Management (NSM) Expert System from Kalman Filter convariance data. The method invokes two statistical techniques: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the ID3 Algorithm. The ANOVA technique indicates whether variations of problem parameters give statistically different covariance results, and the ID3 algorithms identifies the relationships between the problem parameters using probabilistic knowledge extracted from a simulation example set. Both are detailed.