BEARALERTS - A successful flare prediction system

Abstract

The BEARALERT program of predicting solar flares or rapid development of activity in certain sunspot groups is described. The program was instigated in December 1987 by the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) in order to test the current understanding of the flare process by making public predictions via electronic mail. Neither the exact timing of the flare nor the possibility of emergence of new active regions can be predicted. However, high-resolution observations of the magnetic configuration, H-alpha brightness and structure, and other properties of a region have enabled the BBSO astronomers to announce the onset of 15 of 23 major active regions over a two-year period. The criteria for prediction are given and discussed, along with those for filament eruption. The BEARALERT success evaluation is discussed, and the progress made in prediction success is evaluated.