Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

Abstract

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.