Study of explosive and nonexplosive cyclogenesis during FGGE

Abstract

Explosive cyclogenesis during the winter of the First Global GARP Experiment (January-February 1979) is analyzed using the revised European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses. Explosive cyclogenesis is defined as a decrease in the sea level pressure at the rate of 1 mb/h for at least 12 h. Diagnostics for 23 explosively developing cases and 16 nonexplosive cases are evaluated. Parameters compared include the dry static stability, low-level relative vorticity, vorticity advection, upper-level divergence, and kinematic vertical velocities. These parameters are compared statistically at the initial, 12-, and 24-h time periods. Parameters for which the explosive and nonexplosive cyclone ensembles were statistically separable are the kinematic vertical velocity and the upper-level divergence and vorticity advection. The strong upper-level processes for the explosive cases at the initial time indicate the importance of upper-tropospheric features in producing the stronger vertical motions and more rapid cyclogenesis.