Composition changes and empirical models

Abstract

Empirical model descriptions of the response of the neutral thermosphere to magnetic activity have become increasingly sophisticated over the last two decades. The latest CIRA model (MSIS-86) includes a dependence of the thermospheric response to magnetic activity on altitude, latitude, local time, season, longitude, UT, and time history of magnetic activity. A primary assumption is that density changes are directly related to the measured magnetic activity and the goal is for the model to be representative of the typical or average response for any given level of magnetic activity under specified ancillary conditions. Unfortunately, available measurements for the larger storms are too sparse to give good averages and storm response may not be uniquely represented by current magnetic indices. Point by point comparisons with the MSIS-86 model have standard deviations of 20 percent for 0 and 30 percent for N2 and He at high latitudes during storm conditions.