Overconfidence, preview, and probability in strategic planning

Abstract

The performance of eight subjects in a 'rescue' video game requiring choices as to which node they should fly to in order to rescue the simulated casualties is presently studied with a view to biases and display support criteria in strategic planning. After each choice, the subjects needed to fly a challenging tracking dynamic along a path to reach the next node. The results obtained indicate that the choices of the subjects were less optimal when full preview was offered, perhaps due to subjects' reliance on the simple strategy of choosing routes with the greatest number of casualties.