Coupled Land Atmosphere Predictability

Abstract

We have designed and executed a set of predictability experiments, designed around the driest and wettest June soil moisture anomalies from a CCM3 simulation forced by observed SST for the period from 1958 through 1998. Each set contains an ensemble of five runs, all begun on June I radiation date. One set of these experiments helps to assess the extent to which the wet or dry conditions depend solely on the initial state of the atmosphere. The other set of experiments helps to assess the extent to which the wet or dry conditions depend sole on the initial state of the land surface. Preliminary analysis of these experiments suggests that the initial atmospheric state is more important than the initial state of the surface soil moisture in predicting the occurrence of wet or dry periods. These results suggest that when the atmosphere is inclined to generate dry surface conditions (through reduced moisture availability and increased evaporation) it matters little what initial levels of soil water are at; the soil will rapidly dry out. The ensemble forcing the ensembles with dry soil conditions, but utilizing 'normal' atmospheric conditions show little if any indication of the sharp reduction in soil moisture experienced in the control, indicating that the 'normal' atmospheric state is more important than the initial state of the soil moisture in predicting the occurrence of drought. Our work to date has documented the response of surface hydrologic variability, particularly over North America, to atmospheric forcing. While we have seen some suggestion that pre-existing surface anomalies can affect atmospheric circulation over this region, by far the strongest signal is the atmospheric anomalies leading those of soil moisture and surface energy balance changes. This is not an unexpected result since wintertime NA precipitation links to remote atmospheric forcing by ENSO are known to be statistically significant. While warm season links to remote forcing are more tenuous and not well explored, the present results encourage us to examine in more detail the SST forcing from the tropical and North Pacific.