NASA NTRS · 20010048005
Possible Ursid Outburst on December 22, 2000
Abstract
The Ursid shower has broad Filament-type outbursts around the perihelion passage of parent 8P/Tuttle, but also isolated narrow outbursts at aphelion. We calculated Tuttle's dust trail encounters in the same way as for the Leonid showers. We discovered that it takes 6 centuries to change the orbit enough to bring the meteoroids to Earth's orbit. During that time, the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by 6 years, thus explaining the unusual aphelion occurrences. We predict enhanced activity on December 22, 2000, at around 7:29 LT.
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Jenniskens, Peter, Lyytinen, Esko, DeVincenzi, Donald L.. 2000-12-10. Possible Ursid Outburst on December 22, 2000. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20010048005
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