Orbital Evolution of Jupiter-Family Comets

Abstract

We investigated the evolution for periods of at least 5-10 Myr of 2500 Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs) under the gravitational influence of all planets, except for Mercury and Pluto (without dissipative factors). In the first series we considered N=2000 orbits near the orbits of 30 real Jupiter-family comets with period less than 10 yr, and in the second series we took 500 orbits close to the orbit of Comet 10P Tempel 2. We calculated the probabilities of collisions of objects with the terrestrial planets, using orbital elements obtained with a step equal to 500 yr and then summarized the results for all time intervals and all bodies, obtaining the total probability P(sub sigma) of collisions with a planet and the total time interval T(sub sigma) during which perihelion distance of bodies was less than a semimajor axis of the planet. The values of P = 10(exp 6)P(sub sigma)/N and T = T(sub sigma)/1000 yr are presented in Table together with the ratio r of the total time interval when orbits were of Apollo type (at e less than 0.999) to that of Amor type.