Observed Changes in the Sea Ice Cover

Abstract

Satellite passive microwave data from November 1998 through October 2002 are used to evaluate the changing characteristics and the variability of the sea ice cover in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Large seasonal changes in the extent and area are apparent with those of the Southern Hemisphere being more seasonal but less symmetric than those of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, the ice cover is observed to be on a decline at the rate of -2% and -3% per decade for ice extent and ice area, respectively, but there are areas like the Bering Sea with strong positive trends. It is remarkable. however, that the rate of decline of the perennial ice cover. or ice area at the end of the summer, is considerably larger at -9% per decade. If such a rate of decline is sustained for a few more decades, the perennial ice cover may disappear within this century. In the Antarctic, large year to year anomalies in the ice cover are observed but they follow a pattern of alternating positive and negative anomalies around the continent and showing consistency with a propagating Antarctic Circumpolar wave that circles around the region. Large negative trends of about - 11% per decade are, however, observed in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas but this is offset by a similar magnitude but positive trend in the Ross Sea region. Overall, the trend for the entire Antarctic ice cover is positive but basically insignificant.