Orbit Determination Accuracy for Comets on Earth-Impacting Trajectories

Abstract

The results presented show the level of orbit determination accuracy obtainable for long-period comets discovered approximately one year before collision with Earth. Preliminary orbits are determined from simulated observations using Gauss' method. Additional measurements are incorporated to improve the solution through the use of a Kalman filter, and include non-gravitational perturbations due to outgassing. Comparisons between observatories in several different circular heliocentric orbits show that observatories in orbits with radii less than 1 AU result in increased orbit determination accuracy for short tracking durations due to increased parallax per unit time. However, an observatory at 1 AU will perform similarly if the tracking duration is increased, and accuracy is significantly improved if additional observatories are positioned at the Sun-Earth Lagrange points L3, L4, or L5. A single observatory at 1 AU capable of both optical and range measurements yields the highest orbit determination accuracy in the shortest amount of time when compared to other systems of observatories.