Meteor Outbursts and Storms from the Spacecraft Hazard Perspective

Abstract

The recent Leonid meteor storms have propelled meteor shower forecasting from an idea into the realm of practical application, invoked several times per year by numerous spacecraft. This paper will describe shower activity predictions, which give zenith hourly rate (ZHR) as a function of time, and how these are translated into spacecraft risks. Common spacecraft meteor shower mitigation strategies will also be discussed, and the important issue as to when to implement such operations considered. It should be noted that, while the recent meteor storms did not result in the loss of a vehicle, there were a few spacecraft anomalies attributed to Leonid strikes, and the nature of these will be commented upon. Finally, we assess the current state of the art in shower forecasting, and take a look "down the road" at some possible outbursts in the near future.