Validating the Airspace Concept Evaluation System for Different Weather Days

Abstract

This paper extends the process for validating the Airspace Concept Evaluation System using real-world historical flight operational data. System inputs such as flight plans and airport en-route capacities, are generated and processed to create a realistic reproduction of a single day's operations within the National Airspace System. System outputs such as airport throughput, delays, and en-route sector loads are then compared to real world operational metrics and delay statistics for the reproduced day. The process is repeated for 4 historical days with high and low traffic volume and delay attributed to weather. These 4 days are simulated using default en-route capacities and variable en-route capacities used to emulate weather. The validation results show that default enroute capacity simulations are closer to real-world data for low weather days than high weather days. The use of reduced variable enroute capacities adds a large delay bias to ACES but delay trends between weather days are better represented.