Sensitivity Study for Long Term Reliability

Abstract

This paper illustrates using Markov models to establish system and maintenance requirements for small electronic controllers where the goal is a high probability of continuous service for a long period of time. The system and maintenance items considered are quality of components, various degrees of simple redundancy, redundancy with reconfiguration, diagnostic levels, periodic maintenance, and preventive maintenance. Markov models permit a quantitative investigation with comparison and contrast. An element of special interest is the use of conditional probability to study the combination of imperfect diagnostics and periodic maintenance.