UV Impacts Avoided by the Montreal Protocol

Abstract

Temporal and geographical variabilities in the future "World Expected" UV environment are compared with the "World Avoided", which would have occurred without the Montreal Protocol on protection of the ozone layer and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Based on calculations of clear-sky UV irradiances, the effects of the Montreal Protocol have been hugely beneficial to avoid the health risks, such as skin cancer, which are associated with high UV, while there is only a small increase in health risks, such as vitamin D deficiency, that are associated with low UV. However, interactions with climate change may lead to changes in cloud and albedo, and possibly behavioural changes which could also be important.