A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

Abstract

Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.