Comparing Future Options for Human Space Flight

Abstract

The paper analyzes the "value proposition" for government-funded human space flight, a vexing question that persistently dogs efforts to justify its $10(exp 10)/year expense in the U.S. The original Mercury/Gemini/Apollo value proposition is not valid today. Neither was it the value proposition actually promoted by von Braun, which the post-Apollo 80% of human space flight history has persistently attempted to fulfill. Divergent potential objectives for human space flight are captured in four strategic options - Explore Mars; accelerate Space Passenger Travel; enable Space Power for Earth; and Settle the Moon - which are then analyzed for their Purpose, societal Myth, Legacy benefits, core Needs, and result as measured by the number and type of humans they would fly in space. This simple framework is proposed as a way to support productive dialogue with public and other stakeholders, to determine a sustainable value proposition for human space flight.