AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

Guarnieri, Fernando L.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

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NASA NTRS · 20150008891

AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

Guarnieri, Fernando L.·Tsurutani, Bruce T.·Hajra, Rajkumar·Echer, Ezequiel·Gonzalez, Walter D.·Mannucci, Anthony J.

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Abstract

High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

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Guarnieri, Fernando L., Tsurutani, Bruce T., Hajra, Rajkumar, Echer, Ezequiel, Gonzalez, Walter D., Mannucci, Anthony J.. 2014-10-21. AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20150008891

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