Trending in Pc Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Mixed Model

Abstract

Two satellites predicted to come within close proximity of one another, usually a high-value satellite and a piece of space debris moving the active satellite is a means of reducing collision risk but reduces satellite lifetime, perturbs satellite mission, and introduces its own risks. So important to get a good statement of the risk of collision in order to determine whether a maneuver is truly necessary. Two aspects of this Calculation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) based on the most recent set of position velocity and uncertainty data for both satellites. Examination of the changes in the Pc value as the event develops. Events should follow a canonical development (Pc vs time to closest approach (TCA)). Helpful to be able to guess where the present data point fits in the canonical development in order to guide operational response.