A Failure Propagation Modeling Method for Launch Vehicle Safety Assessment

Abstract

A method has been developed with the objective of making the potentially intractable problem of launch vehicle failure propagation somewhat less intractable. The approach taken is to essentially decouple the potentially multi-stepped propagation process into a series of bi-component transition probabilities. These probabilities are then used within a simple Monte Carlo simulation process through which the more complex behavior evolves. The process is described using a simple model problem and some discussion of enhancements for real-world applications is included. The role of the model within a broader analysis process for assessing abort effectiveness from launch vehicle failure modes is also described.