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NASA NTRS · 20190001060

An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

Go, Susie·Mathias, Donovan·Mattenberger, Chris·Lawrence, Scott·Gee, Ken
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Abstract

This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic-crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. We discuss how to combine traditional reliability analyses with Monte Carlo simulation methods and physics-based engineering models to produce loss-of- mission and loss-of-crew risk estimates supporting risk-based decision-making and requirement verification. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

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Risk assessmentProbabilistic riskHuman spaceflight

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Go, Susie, Mathias, Donovan, Mattenberger, Chris, Lawrence, Scott, Gee, Ken. 2014-06-22. An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20190001060

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