Long and Short Term Geomagnetic Prediction (Chapter 19)

Abstract

Prediction of geomagnetic variability depends on the accuracy of geomagnetic field modeling, dynamical modeling of source regions that contribute to geomagnetic signals, and advanced assimilation algorithms that combine effectively the results of geomagnetic field and dynamic models to make accurate estimates of the dynamic states of the sources and, therefore, accurate forecast of geomagnetic variations. In this chapter we provide an overview of recent research efforts in these three research areas, focusing primarily on geomagnetic variations from the dynamic outer core and from solar and lunar tidal effects, but also including a review of relevant research results and developments. Prediction of weak but periodic tidal phenomena, and of strong but chaotic secular variation (SV) showcases two very important new developments which will lead to new opportunities in geomagnetic research and application.